Empire State Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
SOME MAG 7 STOCKS (Motley Fool)
“Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will be the biggest loser next year, if analysts are right…Wall Street doesn't seem to think Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) recent momentum has legs … the consensus price target for Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) reflects an upside potential of roughly 28% over the next 12 months… Analysts think Meta Platforms' (NASDAQ: META) share price will soar around the same amount as Amazon's… Wall Street also loves Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). The average 12-month price target is around 29% higher than the share price as of the market close on Dec. 11, 2025…The consensus price target for Nvidia reflects an upside potential of 39% [the most magnificent of them all.]” Story at… 
This "Magnificent Seven" stock could be the biggest winner in 2026, according to Wall Street
 
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (Investing.com)
“The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, a key indicator of business conditions in New York state, has taken an unexpected downward turn. The index, which is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in the state, posted an actual reading of -3.90, a significant deviation from the forecasted 10.00.” Story at…
https://m.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/ny-empire-state-manufacturing-index-takes-a-plunge-underperforms-expectations-93CH-4408248?ampMode=1
My cmt: A value below zero indicates contraction.
 
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX (NAHB)
"Builder confidence inched higher to end the year but still remains well into negative territory as builders continue to grapple with rising construction costs, tariff and economic uncertainty, and many potential buyers remaining on the sidelines due to affordability concerns.” Report at…
https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2025/12/builder-sentiment-inches-higher-but-ends-the-year-in-negative-territory
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 6817.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.56.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.176% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +13 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign. 
 
I am watching the lower trend line of the S&P 500 index. That level is usually around the 50-dMA. I’ve redrawn the lower trendline in the above chart to match the current level of the 50-dMA. The S&P 500 is still 0.8% above its 50-dMA so there is no need to panic about the slow decline we have seen recently.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.