Fed Meeting … JOLTS Job Openings … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
CAN’T THEY READ IN WASHINGTON (MSN)
“I sold all my U.S. stocks recently, because I’ve seen this party before,” he [Jim Rogers]  said in an interview with Wealthion. “You see a lot of new people talking about how much fun it is, how easy it is … I hope it stays easy to make money for lots of people for the rest of history — [but it] never has…“My advice is, be very, very careful wherever you think about investing. This is a rare time in investing history,” - Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests, Inc., co-founder of the Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management.
‘Can’t they read in Washington?’: Jim Rogers sells off US stock, warns the Federal Reserve can’t ‘save us.’ How to protect yourself
 
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (Reuters)
“U.S. job openings increased marginally in October after surging in September, but subdued hiring and the lowest level of resignations in five years underscored the economic uncertainty that economists have largely blamed on tariffs.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-job-openings-increase-modestly-october-2025-12-09/
 
FED MEETING
The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, cut to its overnight lending rate, bringing the targeted range to between 3.5% and 3.75%...At a news conference following the decision, Chair Jerome Powell said it was a “close call.”
“I could make a case for either side,” he told reporters…David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation [said]…“Powell threaded the needle again at a time when the Fed is dealing with major pressures. This gives policymakers time to get caught up on the economic data after the shutdown.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 6887.
-VIX declined about 7% to 15.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.133% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 1 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
 

It’s obvious when the Fed announced its decision to lower rates by 25 basis points – 2pm. Markets moved higher and so did my indicators.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +14 to +20 (20 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a very BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.  It doesn’t get much better than this.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.1% below its all-time high.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.