Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
Q. Who are Franz Gruber and Hans Gruber and what is their connection to Christmas? Answer Below.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped for a second straight week, declining by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended December 20, the Labor Department said on Wednesday…Continued claims fell marginally between the November and December survey weeks.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-2025-12-24/
 
Ans. Franz Gruber wrote “Silent Night.” Hans Gruber is pictured above; he attempted to rob the Nakatomi Corporation on Christmas Eve,
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6932.
-VIX declined about 4% to 13.47.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.135% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from +14 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; resumed its downward trend, a BEARISH sign. The 10-day average did show signs that it may reverse higher soon. The bull indicators far outnumber the bears – this is a bullish sign overall.
 
Only 3.3% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today as the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high. That is well below average. Although no warning signs were triggered, it is a worrisome number. Volume was less than half of the monthly average, as would be expected on Christmas Eve, but my new-high stat is based on percentages so the low volume should not matter. We’ll keep an eye on this when the S&P 500 makes new all-time highs.
 
The S&P 500 has been higher for 5 days in a row; the S&P 500 is due for a down day. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.