Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Consumer Confidence … Richmond Fed … Dallas Fed … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
THE END OF START-STOP (BamaCooley)
“You know the feeling. Foot on the brake, engine dies, the whole car shudders like it forgot how to be a car. Then the light turns green, and there's that half-second lurch where nothing happens, and the guy behind you lays on his horn … On February 12, 2026, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin walked into the White House Roosevelt Room and called it what millions already had. Zeldin didn't mince words: "Not only do many people find start-stop annoying, but it kills the battery of your car without any significant benefit to the environment. The Trump EPA is proudly fixing this stupid feature at Trump Speed." Story at…
 
RICHMOND FED (Advisor Perspectives)
“Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed somewhat in February according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index dropped 4 points to -10, remaining in negative territory for a twelfth straight month.” Commentary at…
 
DALLAS FED (Dallas Fed)
“Texas service sector activity grew slightly in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, ticked down four points but remained in positive territory at 4.1.” Report at…
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (PR Newswire)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 2.2 points in February to 91.2 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January…’Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers' pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,’ said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. ‘Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).’" Press release at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6890.
-VIX declined about 7% to 19.55.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.037% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign. (Yesterday’s spread was -8. The Hindenburg Omen remains for 30-days except when the McClellan Oscillator is positive.)
 
I was surprised to see that the indicators hadn’t changed much today even though the S&P 500 closed well in the green. As it is, Indicators remain bearish. I should be bearish, but there doesn’t seem to be much fear so I am nervously neutral.
 
The S&P 500 is only 1.3% below its all-time high. It also remains slightly below its 50-dMA.
 
Levels of support are 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.9% above the 100-dMA and 5.3% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am remaining a nervous neutral on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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