Thursday, February 19, 2026

Jobless Claims … Philly Fed … Leading Economic Indicators … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

May be an image of the Brandenburg Gate and text that says 'THE LONDON NDON ECONOMIC MAKS 25 MAC STORMY SONY Trump gets brutally mocked on Presidents' Day by floats at German festival Getty images'
WHAT DOES THE WORLD THINK OF TRUMP? IS THIS REAL?! - FACT-CHECK FROM SNOPES  
“The images of the satirical Trump and Statue of Liberty float, as well as other floats mocking Trump, were authentic photos depicting scenes from real German parades. While the parades were held on America's Presidents Day, the German parades are annual traditions dating back to before that holiday existed. Photos of the float with Trump and the Statue of Liberty were available from Getty Images, Alamy and Reuters. All three photo agencies said the float was from a Rose Monday parade in Mainz.
The city of Mainz describes Rose Monday as the highlight of carnival season, which it called its folk festival with "fantastic days and nights of revelry." Carnival starts annually on Nov. 11 and ends on Ash Wednesday. Each year, the city hosts a parade on Rose Monday, the final Monday before Ash Wednesday.” Truth analysis from Snopes at…
“Snopes is the internet’s oldest and largest independent fact-checking organization, founded in 1994 by David Mikkelson to debunk urban legends, folklore, and, increasingly, political misinformation, fake news, and hoaxes.”
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (KSL.com)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell last week as layoffs remain at historically low levels. The number of Americans filing for jobless aid for the week ending Feb. 14 fell by 23,000 to 206,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at… 
 
PHILADELPHIA FED (Investing.com)
“The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, a crucial gauge of general business conditions in Philadelphia, has posted stronger-than-expected numbers, suggesting an improving economic outlook and a potentially stronger U.S. dollar. The actual figure stood at 16.3, significantly higher than the forecasted 7.5.” Story at…
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board via PR NewsWire)
"The US LEI registered its fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, indicating continued softness in the economy in early 2026," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Alongside a rise in building permits, positive contributions to the LEI in December were led by the index's financial components, with the yield spread notably turning positive in both November and December. However, persistently weak consumer expectations indicators and the ISM® New Orders Index made the largest negative contributions to the LEI in December.” Press release at… 
 
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6862
-VIX rose about 3% to 20.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.065% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – SOLD 2/11/2026
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The waiting game continues. Since the end of October the S&P 500 has gone nowhere – it’s down about 0.5%.
 
Levels of support are the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.4% above the 100-dMA and 5.1% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Bearish for the short term.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

 

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