“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
“The Virginia Supreme Court dealt Democrats a significant setback on Tuesday, refusing to halt a lower‑court order that bars officials from certifying last week’s redistricting referendum while the justices consider whether to throw out the results entirely. The ruling leaves in limbo a constitutional amendment approved by voters that would install a new congressional map crafted by Democratic lawmakers, which could see Democrats gain as many as 4 seats in the U.S. House.” Story at…
Democrats dealt blow by Virginia Supreme Court after redistricting win
“Rising defaults in private credit are rattling investors, while apparent fraud by some borrowers has fueled worries about lax underwriting. Investors are rushing to get their money out of funds to avoid getting stuck with big losses. Politicians are calling for—what else?—more regulation.
But private-credit problems pale in comparison to the less-reported risks in federal student loans and mortgages, which could ripple through the economy. The Biden team’s version of extend-and-pretend concealed the cracks for a time, but defaults are rapidly rising on government-backed loans. Taxpayers will inevitably be left holding the bag.” – Allysia Finley, WSJ Editorial Board. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-credit-bubble-everybodys-ignoring-e457c0ae
“JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned that rising government debt levels could trigger a crisis in the bond market, urging policymakers to act before markets force their hand…A bond crisis would likely mean a sudden jump in yields and a breakdown in market liquidity, where investors rush to sell and buyers recede, typically forcing central banks to step in as buyers of last resort…“We haven’t had a credit recession in so long, so when we have one, it would be worse than people think,” Dimon said. “It might be terrible.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/jamie-dimon-bond-crisis-global-debt-risks.html
My cmt: I would expect to see my indicators warn if a crisis were impending.
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® edged up by 0.6 points to 92.8 (1985=100) in April, from 92.2 in March’s upwardly revised reading… “Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month. This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.” Press release at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
“Texas service sector activity increased in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, edged up three points to 4.3, suggesting revenue increased slightly… Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in April, though the indexes were less negative than the prior month. The general business activity index ticked up three points to -9.9, and the company outlook index rose five points to -5.0. Meanwhile, the outlook uncertainty index dipped two points to 24.8 but was still well above the series average of 14.1.” Press release at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2026/2604
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7139.
-VIX declined about 1% to 17.83. (The Options players seem less worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.348% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication, but just barely. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
I am cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
