“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
“America is crying out for relief from high costs, and you’re here adding $140 billion to an agency that nobody — two groups — Border Patrol and ICE, that nobody respects in this country.” – Chuck Schumer. Democrat, Senate Minority Leader.
My cmt: It’s this kind of politically absurd comment that might keep Democrats from taking over the House and Senate at the mid-term elections. The Democrats are still preventing funding TSA. Only Trump’s emergency order to fund them has stopped the airport delays, missed flights, and reporting of the failed Democrat policies. And for the record, again, I despise the MAGA Republicans too. On a different but related subject, the Budget policies of our Politicians are destroying this country. Tax-and-Spend Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend Republicans – it makes no difference.
“The VIX and S&P do move in tandem about 20% of the time, but if a "VIX-up/stocks-up" environment lingers for more than a few days it means a few things are likely happening under the surface of the market. One explanation is simply that investors are doubtful of new highs in stocks and hedging against risks like the Iran war and crude oil…
…A more bullish interpretation – one that fits with what we see in options trading around earnings – is that traders are willing to buy expensive premiums in upside calls…That enthusiasm is keeping options prices inflated, which could help explain why VIX is so sticky.” Story at…
Wall Street's 'fear gauge' is doing something unusual. What it means
"’Recession risks thus remain uncomfortably high, with close to even odds of a downturn in the coming year," Zandi [Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics]wrote on X. "So says our leading recession indicator.’… Zandi argues that…the job market has been rather flat since "Liberation Day" a year ago, when the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs took effect and hiring slowed down…If you take out health care, which is the only sector that's still consistently adding jobs, the rest of the economy has been shedding them. ‘Without health care,’ he says, ‘the economy would be losing jobs.’ Zandi also places a share of the blame on two big forces: the Trump administration's tariffs, and the sharply restrictive immigration policies. "’The tariffs are cutting increasingly deeply into the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American households,’ he said on X (10). ‘Fewer immigrant workers means a smaller economy.’" Story at…
Moody's top economist says the US job market is already in decline — and the risks of a recession are 'uncomfortably high'
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7165.
-VIX declined about 3% to 18.71.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.306% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers
I am cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
