Friday, April 17, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
DEMOCRATS TRY TO BLCOK ARMS SALES TO ISRAEL (WSJ)
“Does Sen. Bernie Sanders, once an admirer of the Sandinistas and Fidel Castro, now set the Democratic Party line on foreign policy? That’s how it looked Wednesday, when Senate Democrats backed his resolutions aiming to block military sales to Israel. Republicans defeated the measures, but 40 of 47 Democrats voted to advance Mr. Sanders’s resolution blocking the sale of bulldozers and 36 opposed the sale of thousand-pound bombs to Israel... 
…Israeli capabilities are an asset to the U.S., which should encourage Jerusalem to buy its systems, munitions and equipment. Israel already seeks to wind down U.S. aid, but these are sales to a fighting ally. The votes to cut off arms in the middle of a war is an ominous turn that will encourage Iran, Hezbollah and their terrorist allies around the Middle East.” – WSJ Editorial Board. Opinion at…
 
WSJ LETTER
“Regarding Peggy Noonan’s “In Gut We Trust?” (Declarations, April 11): For 47 years, the Iranian regime has been chanting, “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!” For 47 years Americans preferred to look the other way. President Trump essentially said, “Death to Iran!” That is a message the regime understood, and they came to the negotiating table. In high-stakes negotiations, it is helpful to use language that our adversaries understand, even if that sometimes makes supporters uncomfortable.” - Glenn Ackerman, WSJ letters.
 
RALLY STANDING ON ONE LEG (Real Investment.com)
“This market rally so far has been driven primarily by a narrow group of large-cap growth stocks, with the Mag 7 $MAGS doing most of the heavy lifting while the broader market $RSP lags behind.
Despite strong index performance, participation remains weak, with only about half of stocks above their 200-day moving average and many sectors barely advancing.” – Lance Roberts.
My cmt: That was true yesterday – not so much today.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 7126, a new high.
-VIX declined about 3% to 17.47.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.248% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +12 to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. We’ll keep an eye on the 10-day.
 
Today’s Overbought indicators were the same as yesterday: RSI; Advance / Decline Ratio; and the fact that 9 out of the last 10 trading days have been up. Bollinger Bands were not overbought today at the close, however, they had been overbought at the high for the day. It’s the close that matters, so there was no indication of an impending down-day. If both RSI and Bollinger Bands are overbought Monday, it would be a strong signal that the overdue down-day would be forthcoming.
 
Breadth improved today. There were 194 new, 52-week highs and the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE was over 62%. This cancels concern that we might see a correction greater than 10% start soon. The breadth numbers look good now; they are about at the 5-year average.
 
There’s an odd stat in the 12% run higher over the last 3-weeks – there has been relatively low % of up-volume. There has not been a single day when the up-volume was greater than 75%. Looking at the 10% correction bottom in 2023, there were back-to-back 80%+ up-volume days and 1, 90% up-volume day in the 3 weeks following the bottom. That would have given 2 legitimate buy-signals during the bounce higher. I can’t say that it means anything because it’s a rare event, but my up-volume indicator is one of the few bearish indicators in the 50-indicators I track daily.
 
I won’t chase this market, but as the war news get’s better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, but markets are overdue for a down-day.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Posted by at