Payrolls / Unemployment Rate … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
“Never, never, never,
believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that
strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The
Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of
policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston
Churchill.
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued.
“But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie
Dimon
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC)
“Job growth unexpectedly surged in May as the U.S. labor
market continued a solid year of expansion, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls jumped a seasonally adjusted 172,000 for the
period, down slightly from the upwardly revised 179,000 in April and far above
the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 80,000. The unemployment rate held steady
at 4.3%, as expected.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/jobs-report-may-2026.html
My cmt: I seem to recall that it takes 200,000 jobs monthly
just to handle college graduates entering the workforce, so I don’t know why 179k
is a “strong” number.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 2.6% to 7384.
-VIX rose about 40% to 21.51.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.532%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month
price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest
price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA
is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +3 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was
unchanged, a NEUTRAL sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
I said yesterday, “I may sell my QLD position. I have a
profit now, but that may evaporate.” Today, yes, profits are very gone,
but I was a buyer today rather than a seller.
Friday, was a huge down-day and my Panic Indicator
signaled. This is an interesting indicator; it is Bearish if we see it at a top,
and Bullish at a bottom. The last time we saw it was 37-days into the 9%
correction, about 2% before the bottom on 30 March. Before that, the Panic Indicator warned on 10
October; the S&P 500 moved up after that so the indicator wasn’t giving a
good signal, although a 5% pullback did start 2-weeks later. The Panic Indicator
signaled a buy on 1 August at the end of a small decline.
I am hoping that that’s what we saw today, so that’s why I
was a buyer. In addition, Friday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near
Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days
occur at bottoms. We haven’t seen enough of a pullback to discuss a bottom.
We also note that the bearish rising wedge I mentioned
yesterday has vanished, another reason to be more bullish.
I may have acted too quickly by buying today. I never act
on one indicator, but I did today – perhaps I’m too complacent. (Never say
never.) We’ll see…
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, but perhaps not cautious enough this time.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
