Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 

1930’s AGAIN? (Benzinga)
“Ray Dalio said the United States has crossed a debt threshold from which it cannot return, and the Federal Reserve may soon be forced into a 1930s-style policy of holding interest rates artificially low.
Speaking at the Forbes Iconoclast Summit, the Bridgewater Associates founder told Bloomberg’s Dani Burger that $7 trillion in federal spending against $5 trillion in revenue is squeezing the economy ‘like plaque in the arteries.’ … Dalio compared the likely outcome to financial repression, where the Treasury and Fed coordinate to suppress yields, often alongside higher taxation and inflation.” Story at…
Ray Dalio says US is 'past the point of no return' on debt, sees 1930s-style 'financial repression' coming
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP news)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 30 increased by 13,000 to 225,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s the most since early February, before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, but still a historically low level.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-8581eb0c5876003c85d30a44ca7b35e9
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7584.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.475% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
 
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
While the streak of 9 consecutive up-days has ended, we still note that 9-days of the 10-days have been up. That remains a lofty number that still suggests a down-day.
This is one of the bear indicators now in place.
 
The McClellan Oscillator is negative so that brings back the Hindenburg warning. (It remains in place 30-days except when the Oscillator is positive.)  
 

There is a bearish rising wedge pattern in place (see the above Summary of 50 Indicator Spread Chart), but I am not impressed and it doesn’t seem to be predicting a big decline.
 
“The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows… wedges definitely slope up and have a bearish bias.” – Investopedia.
 

There are bullish signs too.
 
Looking at sentiment numbers, we see that retail-traders (mom and pop) continue betting more to the bear side now and the sentiment indicator switched from neutral to bullish. That sets the table for more gains, but we still expect a down-day or two in the near future. We finally got a down day yesterday so it will be interesting to see how the traders are positioned when the numbers come in late tonight.
 
I may sell my QLD position. I have a profit now, but that may evaporate tomorrow if we see declines.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, but markets are still due for a pause. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) has been the pattern and it may start up again so the pause may be short – we’ll see.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined t HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.