Monday, June 1, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
A REPUBLICAN TIME FOR CHOOSING (WSJ-Excerpt)
“The Republican Party faces a momentous choice: Will we remain a party of conservative beliefs, or will we follow the siren song of populism?...
…Where conservatives have historically viewed politics as the art of the possible, progressives see politics as a path to alter society beyond recognition in a quest for material equity, environmental nirvana, or other alleged perfections. Progressives invariably try to destroy whatever stands in their way. Populism is progressivism in disguise. It strikes at us not from the Democratic Party but from within our own ranks, sparking a battle for the soul of the Republican Party…Popular opinion is fickle. Principles are final. When principles guide us, they can lead us to our greatest political successes. The challenge for conservatives is to hold fast to our principles. This means believing in personal and economic liberty. It means standing up to evil regimes and standing with the friends of freedom on the world stage. It means conducting ourselves with dignity and civility. Above all, it means respecting the Constitution. Leaders fade into history. The politics of convenience driven by the passing moment never prevail, but principles endure.” – Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States (2017-21), and founder of Advancing American Freedom. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-republican-time-for-choosing-c1f4f8a4
 
TRUMP BACKS OFF ANTI-WEAPONIZATION SLUSH FUND (NBC News)
“The Trump administration signaled Monday it is backing off on creating a $1.8 billion fund announced by the Justice Department that could send money to allies of President Donald Trump deemed to be “victims of lawfare and weaponization.”
It comes after a fierce and rare backlash from Senate Republicans, who threatened to team up with Democrats to block the fund. About half the Republican conference appeared ready to vote with Democrats to restrict or kill it, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said last week…“The only thing that’s going to solve this problem, to get immigration funded and law enforced, is for the president to do away with the weaponization fund,” Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, the chair of the Judiciary Committee that oversees DOJ, said.” Story at…
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-appears-back-18-billion-anti-weaponization-fund-r-rcna347884
 
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“In May, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at a faster pace compared to the month before. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI®, the New Orders index indicated faster growth compared to the previous month, the Supplier Deliveries index stayed the same, the Production Index grew at a faster rate, and the Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction, though both improved.” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/may/
 
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (ColoradoBiz)
“U.S. construction spending increased 0.4% from March to April and 0.9% from a year earlier, according to an analysis of new federal data by the Associated General Contractors of America.” Story at…
https://coloradobiz.com/us-construction-spending-rises-transportation-funding-renewal/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7600.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.05.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.455% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
 
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
This update is similar to recent posts:
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +13 to +18 (18 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
More Overbought: 8 of the last 10-days have been up-days; while 14 of the last 20 have been up. Further, the last 8 days have all been higher than the day before. Those are lofty numbers that should bring a down day soon.  Looking at sentiment numbers, we see that retail-traders (mom and pop) are betting more to the bear side now. If they keep that up a little longer the sentiment indicator will switch from neutral to bullish.
 
The S&P 500 made another all-time high today, Monday. 121 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is below the 5-year average, but still high enough so that we don’t have a bearish signal. Breadth remained positive - more than 50% of stocks on the NYSE have been up over the last 10-days. These stats show breadth is good enough that we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon.
 
Indicators look good. Bear signals are unremarkable, but we’re due for a down day and traders are actually betting on a down-day. When it comes, the down-day might be a good time to add to stock holdings in the trading portfolio.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish – I expect a down day soon, probably tomorrow, Tuesday.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.