“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“Every American household is now paying close to $700 a month toward something no one ever signed up for: interest on the national debt. According to the Congressional Budget Office, that cost has already topped $857 billion this fiscal year, about $23.8 billion every week. None of it builds a road, funds a school, or covers a Social Security check. It only keeps the government's existing bonds from defaulting.” Story at…
Treasury Department has a troubling update for every American taxpayer
“At issue is a tweet Trump sent at 2:24 p.m. on Jan. 6, as rioters were breaching the Capitol. The tweet said: "Mike Pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution." In March, Mehta [U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta] ruled the tweet was an official act and therefore immune from civil liability.”
Trump immunity in question after judge finds tweet 'poured gasoline' on Jan. 6 riot
My cmt: This one may wind up in the Supreme Court. It seems to me that attempts to overthrow the results of the 2020 election would not be “official acts,” but one never knows. Judge Mehta (Appointed by President Obama) said “official.”
“The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure…The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.02 in June from -0.19 in May.” Analysis at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/23/cfnai-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-economic-growth-june-2026
“U.S. applications for jobless benefits tumbled to the lowest level in more than five decades last week as layoffs remain historically low despite global economic uncertainty.
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits in the week ending July 18 declined by 22,000 to 187,000…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-097a210a86c0bebcba2b2625cd04c2dc
“The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity remained steady in June. The composite index came in at 9 this month, down slightly from 11 in June but still indicating continued expansion.” Analysis at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/23/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-index-steady-growth-in-july
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1.2% to 7408.
-VIX rose about 18% to 19.66.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.699% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -4 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
I am bearish and will remain so tomorrow, unless the S&P 500 climbs above its 50-day.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
