Monday, September 16, 2019

Empire State Manufacturing … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (MarketWatch)
“The Empire State business conditions index fell 2.8 points to 2 in September, the New York Fed said Monday...Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Monday the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 2998.
-VIX rose about 7% to 14.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.847%.
 
My daily sum of 20 Indicators decreased from +10 to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +70 to +71. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.)
 
We noted that Friday’s jump in RSI was as much about the value of the S&P 500 15-days ago as it was Friday’s small move. Today, RSI dipped to below the overbought point, but only slightly below. RSI is still very nearly overbought.
 
Smart Money has been selling (based on late-day-action) and that’s never a good sign, but there are still plenty of positive signs.
 
Most of the important indicators remain bullish: MACD of the S&P 500 is bullish as is the MACD of Breadth. New-high/new-low data is bullish for the most part.
 
I remain bullish.
 
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10 (Zero is a neutral reading.)
Today’s Reading: ZERO      
-RSI was negative.
- Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 13 September.
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy Sign.
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Over the last 2 months, Apple remains the biggest gainer, up almost 9% as of 16 Sept. Home Depot, currently tops in momentum, is up 8.5%.
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
 
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  
 
My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in stocks as of 20 August 2019. This is a conservative balanced position appropriate for a retiree.
 
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Monday, the PRICE indicator was positive; SENTIMENT VOLUME and VIX Indicators were neutral. Overall, the Long-Term Indicator dipped to HOLD.

Friday, September 13, 2019

Retail Sales … University of Michigan Sentiment … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
RETAIL SALES (Reuters)
“U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August, pointing to solid consumer spending that should continue to support a moderate pace of economic growth… Retail sales rose 0.4% last month, lifted by spending on motor vehicles, building materials, healthcare and hobbies.” Story at…
 
SENTIMENT (MarketWatch)
"The University of Michigan said its consumer-sentiment index rebounded modestly in September to a reading of 92 from a three-year low of 89.8 in late August." Story at...
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Friday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 3007.
-VIX dipped about 3% to 13.74.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 1.899%.
 
Today, we had a down day on the S&P 500. As of yesterday, there had only been 2 down-days in the last 10, so we were due for a breather.
 
Finally, the Fosback New-high/New-Low Logic Index has reverted to a neutral position.  To be clearer, this indicator has been neutral for a while, based on the positive McClellan Oscillator, but today the moving averages of the new-high/new low numbers again improved – this time enough to show clearly that the new-high new-low data is no longer bearish.  I’d say the numbers are now bullish, but Fosback’s Logic Index is not bullish yet.  
 
We did, however, see the Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14-day, SMA) turn negative at >80. Relative Strength measures the size of up-moves vs. all-moves on a 14-day moving average basis and presents the result as a percentile. For example; if the RSI is 85, it means that the size of up-moves are in the 85th percentile when compared to all moves over the 14-day period.  If ALL moves had been up, RSI would be 100 – a definite short term sell indicator. For my purposes, 30 is oversold (suggesting a turn-around to the upside) and 80 is overbought. If the up-moves and down-moves are equal in size over the 14-day period, RSI would be 50.
 
Since we had a down-day today, today’s jump in RSI is as much about the value of the S&P 500 15-days ago as it was today’s small move; we’ll see where this indicator goes.
 
My daily sum of 20 Indicators decreased from +13 to +10 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +62 to +70. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.)
 
I remain bullish.
 
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10 (Zero is a neutral reading.)
Today’s Reading: -1      
-RSI was negative.
- Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 13 September.
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy Sign.
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Over the last 2 months, Apple is the biggest gainer, up almost 10%. Home Depot, currently tops in momentum is up a little over 7%.
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals slipped to NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
 
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  
 
My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in stocks as of 20 August 2019. This is a conservative balanced position appropriate for a retiree.
 
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Friday, the VOLUME and VIX indicators were positive; SENTIMENT and PRICE Indicators were neutral. Overall, the Long-Term Indicator improved to BUY. We issued a BUY signal in the morning of 19 August, so today’s buy-signal is not important; it does confirm again that the market is doing well.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Consumer Price Index … Jobless Claims … 9/11 An Inside Job? What Crap! … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CNBC)
“Consumer prices slowed in August, rising by a slight 0.1%, reflecting a big drop in the cost of gasoline and other energy products.” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)
“The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits around Labor Day fell sharply to a nearly five-month low of 204,000, an extremely low reading that was likely exaggerated by the holiday and possibly Hurricane Dorian.” Story at…
 
OFF TOPIC – 9/11 TWIN TOWERS CONSPIRACY
The following is from ZeroHedge:
“How can any of us continue to question everything 9/11 has brought us, but not question 9/11 itself?
On 9/11 2001 three steel-framed high-rise buildings collapsed completely at near free-fall speed allegedly due to fires – which, if true, makes them the only steel-framed high-rises in construction history to have ever done this…The official explanation for this event is that Muslim terrorists somehow confounded all the usual security procedures and ‘attacked America’ because they ‘hated our freedoms.’”
It continues, but I won’t.
My cmt:
Frankly, this is why I pay little attention to what I read in ZeroHedge. It is frequently BS of the most abhorrent kind – designed to foment hate and discontent. As a Professional Engineer with a background in Structural Engineering, I am surprised that the conspiracy theorists get credence anywhere for this kind of tripe. The author should go back and watch the construction videos that showed the unique design that made the twin towers susceptible to this type of collapse. The Towers were a box-like construction with floors spanning across the box. It is a well-known fact of material science that steel-frame buildings sag when heated by fire. (Oddly, wood beams actually perform better.) Office materials couldn’t get hot enough? Yes, they frequently do.  In this case, the fire was assisted by a few thousand pounds of jet fuel. Sagging steel led to a pancake collapse, floor upon floor. There is no doubt – except for a few whackos.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 3010.
-VIX dipped about 3% to 14.18.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 1.773%.
 
My daily sum of 20 Indicators increased from +12 to +13 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +49 to +62. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.)
 
I remain bullish.
 
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10 (Zero is a neutral reading.)
Today’s Reading: -1      
-The Long-term Fosback Logic Index indicator was bearish, but this indicator isn’t valid now because the McClellan Oscillator remains positive.
- Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 12 September.
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy Sign.
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Over the last 2 months, Apple is the biggest gainer, up almost 10%. Home Depot, currently tops in momentum is up a little over 7%.
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
 
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  
 
My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in stocks as of 20 August 2019. This is a conservative balanced position appropriate for a retiree.
 
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, the VOLUME indicator was positive; VIX, SENTIMENT and PRICE Indicators were neutral. Overall, the Long-Term Indicator remained to HOLD.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Producer Price Index … Crude Inventories … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX PPI
"The wholesale cost of U.S. goods and services rose slightly in August, but inflation more broadly was still quite low and showed little sign of stirring up any trouble for the U.S. economy.” Story at…
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“Oil prices jumped higher after the Energy Information Administration reported a draw in crude oil inventories of 6.9 million barrels for the week to September 6.” Story at…
 
THE MYTH OF SEPTEMBER’S GLOOM (Heritage Capital)
“…since 1950, the S&P 500 averages a +0.40% return in September when beginning in an uptrend versus -2.70% when starting in a downtrend. That is significantly different and well worth noting where the month is beginning. (Hat tip to one of my favorite research reads, Ari Wald from Oppenheimer)” – Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital.
My cmt: The bottom of this pullback was 14 August, so this September, we started the month in an uptrend. No gloom here.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.7% to 2979.
-VIX dipped about 4% to 14.61.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 1.760%.
 
As I noted yesterday, “We have a spring (the S&P 500) that is coiled for release.  That release will push the S&P 500 higher.” Today the move higher began and it should continue, though not straight up.
 
My daily sum of 20 Indicators increased from +12 to +13 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +24 to +50. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.)
 
I remain bullish.
 
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10 (Zero is a neutral reading.)
Today’s Reading: -1      
-The Long-term Fosback Logic Index indicator was bearish, but this indicator isn’t valid now because the McClellan Oscillator remains positive.
- Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 11 September.
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy Sign.
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Over the last 2 months, Apple is the biggest gainer, up almost 10%. Home Depot, currently tops in momentum is up a little over 7%.
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
 
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  
 
My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in stocks as of 20 August 2019. This is a conservative balanced position appropriate for a retiree.
 
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the VOLUME indicator was positive; VIX, SENTIMENT and PRICE Indicators were neutral. Overall, the Long-Term Indicator remained to HOLD.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Small Business Optimism … JOLTS Job Openings … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.6 points to 103.1, remaining within the top 15 percent of readings. Overall, August was a good month for small business. However, optimism slipped because fewer owners said they expect better business conditions and real sales volumes in the coming months.” Commentary at… 
 
JOLTS (Advisor Perspectives)
“U.S. job openings fell for a second straight month in July amid decreases in wholesale trade and the federal government, bolstering economists’ views that job growth has peaked.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up a point to 2979.
-VIX dipped about 0.5% to 15.2.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 1.733%.
 
Today was a lot like yesterday. Again, internals looked good today: 1712 issues on the NYSE advanced while only 1218 declined; there were 82 new 52-week highs and only 10 new lows; and up-volume outpaced down--volume 2,904,000,000 to 1,572,000,000.
 
Like yesterday, the S&P 500 was little changed.  We have a spring (the S&P 500) that is coiled for release.  That release will push the S&P 500 higher.
 
Don’t believe me? A lot of stocks were up today. The NYSE Composite was up 0.26% and the Pros seem to agree – there was nearly a half percent gain in the last hour of the day.
 
My daily sum of 20 Indicators increased from +10 to +12 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +4 to +24. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.)
 
I remain bullish.
 
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10 (Zero is a neutral reading.)
Today’s Reading: -1      
-The Long-term Fosback Logic Index indicator was bearish, but this indicator isn’t valid now because the McClellan Oscillator remains positive.
- Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 10 September.
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy Sign.
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
Just a reminder…During corrections, momentum is generally not giving a very accurate picture, or at least it is giving a correction picture – it will change significantly when the correction ends. During the correction, Utilities will generally outperform as will similar Dow stocks, like Verizon. Momentum here is a short-term call.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
 
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  
 
My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in stocks as of 20 August 2019. This is a conservative balanced position appropriate for a retiree.
 
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday, the VOLUME indicator was positive; VIX, SENTIMENT and PRICE Indicators were neutral. Overall, the Long-Term Indicator remained to HOLD.