“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
MASS HYSTERIA OVER 1 DEGREE OF WARMING (MishTalk – Gobal Economic
Trend Analysis)
“Global surface temperature was 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] °C higher in 2011– 2020 than 1850–1900...The likely range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C, with a best estimate of 1.07°C.” - 2021 Summary for Policymakers (SPM), 14th session of Working Group I and 54th Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, subject to final copy-editing and layout.
My cmt: Unbelievable! The hysteria is about 1.07°C??!!! Sadly, this is
not a joke. See “Investigating the Mass Hysteria Over 1 Degree in Climate
Change Since 1850” at...
FED BEIGE BOOK (CNBC)
“U.S. businesses are experiencing escalating inflation
that is being aggravated by a shortage of goods and likely will be passed onto
consumers in many areas, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday... Rising
inflation pressures are part of that picture in which a shortage of workers is
being met by higher salaries.” Story at...
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (Business Insider)
“Job openings in the US rose to a record high for the fifth
consecutive month in July as demand for workers still outpaced hiring. Openings
climbed to 10.9 million in July from 10.2 million, according to Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Survey, or JOLTS, data published Wednesday... The
available-worker-to-opening ratio fell to 0.8 in July, signaling there were
more job listings than workers to fill them.” Story at...
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 6:30 PM Wednesday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in
Green.
The smoothed 10-dMA of new cases is still off its peak, so perhaps we have seen the worst of the Delta-varient. That’s a scary comment though; I think I said the same thing early in the Covid pandemic. I suspect we may see another peak as Delta moves to other areas – hope I am wrong.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 4514.
-VIX slipped about 1% to 17.96.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.344%.
I said yesterday that I didn’t see signs of a correction?
I missed one yesterday and a few more popped up today.
Today, the 50-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE was
below 50% for the 2nd day in a row. (I missed it yesterday.) My “definition”
of correction is the 50-dMA of advancing issues is less than 50% for 3 consecutive
days. Let’s see what happens tomorrow. Of course, this signal warned 17-26
August and we didn’t see a correction then.
This is more of a follow-on to that weakness and is a concern if it does
in fact stay below 50% for a third day.
The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE also dropped below
50% today suggesting the trend is down. The 40-dMA of new-highs is also
suggesting a downtrend is in play. Other indicators are also trending down.
Investors bought Utilities (XLU-ETF) hard today.
Utilities are the leading sector over the last 2 months! That’s a bearish sign.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from -2 to -7 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -8 to -9. (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble
remained HOLD. Volume, Price, VIX & Sentiment indicators are neutral.
These indicators bounce around
and aren’t enough for me to make portfolio changes yet. I am still cautiously bullish. A top is coming, but not THE TOP.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation is now about
50% invested in stocks; this is my “normal” 50% allocation.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a 30 year
old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual funds and/or
stock ETFs. That’s ok, but for older
investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested in stocks
(as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in the
portfolio to keep up with inflation.
