Navigate the Stock Market

Thursday, July 10, 2025

Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained bullish at +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.

The S&P 50 again closed very near its lower trend line. We don’t want to see the lower trendline broken. On the other hand, as we have noted earlier, the S&P 500 has been exhibiting a parabolic rose. It would be a good sign if the rate of advance on the S&P 500 slowed to a more normal climb. So, I won’t get too wound-up if the lower trendline is broken.

All-in-all, things look generally bullish, although futures Wednesday night are down about 0.25% as I write this.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Small Business Optimism ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

I’ll be posting late for the next few days. It’s a busy time.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).

USA DEBT: 122.5% OF GDP (msn)
“The US sits on the biggest public debt pile in the world. Government liabilities amount to a bewildering $36.2 trillion, which is more than double what runner-up China owes. To highlight the scale, the interest payments exceed what America spends on both defense and Medicare.
With US national debt on an unsustainable path, efforts to cut government spending have been made, chiefly by Elon Musk's controversial DOGE, though the initiative hasn't saved all that much in real terms. And of course Musk and President Trump have fallen out spectacularly over the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which will inflate the nation's debt, directly contradicting DOGE's goals.” From...
How Deep in Debt is America Compared to Other Countries?
My cmt: Maybe that’s why we have the following:

MUSK SAYS HE’S FORMED THE AMERICA PARTY (PBS)
“Elon Musk has said that he’s formed a new political party, but it’s unclear what steps — if any — he’s taken to do so, or how the effort might affect upcoming elections... The possible new political party marks another development in the rift between Musk and President Donald Trump over the Republican’s sweeping tax cuts law, which the tech billionaire has called ‘insane.’” Story at...
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/musk-says-hes-formed-the-america-party-heres-what-to-know

NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
"The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remained steady in June, edging down 0.2 of a point to 98.6, slightly above the 51-year average of 98... “Small business optimism remained steady in June while uncertainty fell,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Taxes remain the top issue on Main Street, but many others are still concerned about labor quality and high labor costs.” Report at...
https://www.nfib.com/news/news/new-survey-small-business-optimism-remains-steady-in-june-5/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6226.
-VIX declined about 6% to 16.81.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.411% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained bullish at +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.

The S&P 50 closed approximately at its lower trend line. We don’t want to see the lower trendline broken. On the other hand, as we have noted earlier, the S&P 500 has been exhibiting a parabolic rose. It would be a good sign if the rate of advance on the S&P 500 slowed to a more normal climb. (Where’s my editor when I need one?) So, I won’t get too wound-up if the lower trendline is broken.

Tuesday, advancing-issues outpaced declining-issues almost 2 to 1. That usually is followed by an up-day. Futures are flat as I write this so, no help there in guessing tomorrow’s action.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, July 7, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

I’ll be posting late for the next few days. It’s a busy time.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).

JUSTICE KAGAN WON 70% OF THE TIME (WSJ – EXCERPT)
“Here’s a figure that might surprise: Justice Elena Kagan, the Supreme Court’s leading liberal, was in the majority of 70% of this term’s non-unanimous outcomes. To compare, Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, stout conservatives, were each at 62%, tied with Justice Sonia Sotomayor. They were a tick above Justice Neil Gorsuch’s 61%...
...42% of rulings this year were unanimous...Only 9% of cases overall, six total, resulted in ideologically split 6-3 outcomes, with the liberal Justices dissenting as a bloc... The point of such statistics isn’t to obfuscate that this is a conservative Court, the best in living memory. That’s true. Yet two-thirds of cases this term weren’t closely divided, and the originalist Justices all have jurisprudential idiosyncrasies, resulting in 6-3 and 5-4 cases with scrambled lineups that confound partisan politics. That’s what doing the law looks like.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/supreme-court-term-elena-kagan-unanimous-rulings-d1a67bc7?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAiTVWRrnnskRHF1hcLebZ-_kYEXwouWT0eFTNIfjJ-Jd3ZaZUOydKYIeWwPgH4%3D&gaa_ts=68698153&gaa_sig=9-qi0Ev-kBD2favfM8oDVR8TiqlaMLNAZaE1NYAcmG7q2UphQ0dbLWQeqzxKVjRCA2ajNKISe3A4eXtX3-2YsQ%3D%3D

USA DEBT: 122.5% OF GDP (msn)
“The US sits on the biggest public debt pile in the world. Government liabilities amount to a bewildering $36.2 trillion, which is more than double what runner-up China owes. To highlight the scale, the interest payments exceed what America spends on both defense and Medicare.
With US national debt on an unsustainable path, efforts to cut government spending have been made, chiefly by Elon Musk's controversial DOGE, though the initiative hasn't saved all that much in real terms. And of course Musk and President Trump have fallen out spectacularly over the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which will inflate the nation's debt, directly contradicting DOGE's goals.” From...
How Deep in Debt is America Compared to Other Countries?

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 6230.
-VIX rose about 9% to 17.79.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.387% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved slightly and remained bullish at +17 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.

The Indicator-spread improved on a down-day today? Yes, primarily because the Bollinger Band indicator switched to neutral.

The financial press was reporting markets were down because of Trump’s latest tariff announcement. (He’ll reinstate some tariffs on 1 August.) Could be, so we may be in for some volatile trading, though it seems highly unlikely we’ll see anything like the April panic-selling and the associated 19% decline.

As for now, one down-day doesn’t tell us much especially when the indicators improved.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Payroll Report ... Durable Goods Orders ... ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Markets are closed for the Fourth of July. Have a good day and stay safe.

“I am apt to believe that it [Fourth of July] will be celebrated, by succeeding Generations, as the great anniversary Festival. It ought to be commemorated, as the Day of Deliverance by solemn Acts of Devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more.
You will think me transported with Enthusiasm but I am not. -- I am well aware of the Toil and Blood and Treasure, that it will cost Us to maintain this Declaration, and support and defend these States. -- Yet through all the Gloom I can see the Rays of ravishing Light and Glory. I can see that the End is more than worth all the Means. And that Posterity will tryumph in that Days Transaction, even altho We should rue it, which I trust in God We shall not.” – John Adams, excerpt of 3 July letter to Abigal Adams.
My cmt: Adams originally thought the 2^nd would be a day of great celebration, that being the day the Continental Congress voted to break with Britain. He later realized the significance of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).

A CAPITULATION BY THE LAST HOLDOUTS MAY DRIVE THE MARKET HIGHER (MarketWatch)
“During the last 60 years, a more than 20% gain for the S&P 500 in a two-month time period has happened only six other times, Pat Tschosik chief thematic strategist and London Stockton, analyst at Ned Davis Research, told clients in a new note. Despite this impressive performance, the pair sense a lack of investor wow-factor out there, likely due to some remaining pessimists. In our call of the day, Tschosik and Stockton say those bearish holdouts — they point the finger at investors who are Democrats — could open the door to another rally when they finally capitulate.” Story at...
The last holdout bears are Democrats, these strategists say. Their capitulation could fuel the next leg higher for stocks.

PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC)
“Job growth proved better than expected in June, boosted by government hiring, as the labor market showed surprising resilience and likely took a July interest rate cut off the table. Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month...The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/jobs-report-june-2025.html

DURABLE GOODS (Advisor Perspectives)
“New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $343.59B in May, its highest level in history. This represents a 16.4% increase from the previous month, the largest monthly jump since 2014, and a 19.8% rise from one year ago...” Commentary and analysis at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/26/durable-goods-orders-surge-16-4-in-may

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM via PRnewswire)
“Economic activity in the services sector grew in June after just one month of contraction, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The Services PMI^® indicated expansion at 50.8 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for 11th time in the last 12 months.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-50-8-june-2025-services-ism-report-on-business-302497305.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6279.
-VIX declined about 2% to 16.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.348% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

There was one new bear indicator Friday; Bollinger Bands are overbought. I’ll ignore it until RSI is also overbought.

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined slightly, but remained bullish at +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.

Here’s an interesting chart below. The 15-ETFs that I track for the daily momentum chart (ETF Momentum: Percentile Rank) are a cross section of the overall market. Curiously, when all 15 of those ETFs are above their own 120-day moving averages (120-dMA) (the red line hits 100% on the left axis) the overall market is usually at, or near, a top. It doesn’t have to be a major top; it might only signal a drop of 3-5%. But sometimes, it can warn of a more significant decline. This indicator is not in my 50-indicator ensemble; however, it is one of my Top-Indicators.

Another worry in the above chart is the slope of the current trendline channel. The S&P 500 is going parabolic. Note how much steeper the trendlines are since the April low compared to the trendline from the October 23 low.

Sentiment is also stretched. I would not be surprised to see a correction of less than 10% this summer or fall. It’s too soon to try to anticipate such a move - we’ll need to see more bearish indicators before we get a top warning.

The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today, Thursday. One measure of breadth is the % of new, 52-week-highs. Today, 6.8% of issues traded on the NYSE made new-52-week highs. That is in line with the average new, 52-week-highs that we typically see at all-time highs. By that measure, breadth looks good. It is certainly not signaling a problem with markets.

I increased stock holdings last Friday, based on good signs from indicators, raising my investment in stocks to about 55% of the portfolio.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

ADP Jobs ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).

TRANSGENDER KIDS USUALY GROW UP GAY (WSJ – EXCERPT)
“After the Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s ban on puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones for minors, “LGBT” organizations issued statements condemning the court’s decision. I’m gay, and I welcome the court’s decision. So-called gender-affirming is a new form of “conversion therapy.” Instead of “praying away the gay,” we are “transing” it away. The practice of pediatric gender medicine began as an attempt to engineer homosexual adolescents medically into straight adults. If left alone, almost all gender-distressed children grow up to be gay, not adults who reject their natural sex... Of the first 70 adolescents to be treated with this protocol [puberty blockers, opposite sex hormones], 62 were homosexual, six were bisexual, one was heterosexual, and one didn’t know yet... Meantime, how dare the leaders of LGBT organizations accuse people like me of hatred and bigotry, when they support regressive medical practices that are antithetical to everything the gay-liberation movement once stood for?” – Ben Appel, author of “Cis White Gay: The Making of a Gender Heretic.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/transgender-kids-usually-grow-up-gay-c71b3cd8?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAg5G3c7PytkHNfAXX-egQW11boLK4kYLFuibbHYi8dXa4JsoTjFQzQu5eunCSU%3D&gaa_ts=68646e18&gaa_sig=ej4oGS4nDxVfoLBn5DvsWXjx9x-_Mb00m_b0U7iX4F71h_8C5N5u4fuYTxmeirKfcZOOo7M-pPepDHWvK-n2jw%3D%3D

APD JOBS REPORT (CNBC)
“Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe... Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/adp-jobs-report-june-2025.html

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 419 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 9% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6227.
-VIX declined about 1% to 16.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.283% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a bullish at +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.

I heard one of the hosts on CNBC state today that we are seeing the “Narrowest breadth ever for an all-time high.” Maybe I didn’t hear it correctly, because my numbers show otherwise. Wednesday, 4.4% of issues traded on the NYSE made new-52-week highs today. That was below the 5-year average for what we typically see at all-time highs, but it is above a number that signals trouble in my system.

Here’s some more information on the subject from Lowry Research.
According to their website, Lowry Research is the oldest continuously published Technical Investment Advisory in the U.S. They have published a number of technical papers on stock market analysis. One of them states: “Our original 2006 study titled “An Exploration of the Nature of Bull Market Tops” (updated to include the 2007 Bull market peak) examined every Bull market top since 1929 and found that, on the final top day of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, less than 11% of common stocks listed for trading on the New York Stock Exchange were also making new highs. In the 1929 case, when the DJIA made its final high on Sept. 3rd, the percentage of NYSE-listed stocks at new highs was just 2.3%...” – The Warning Signs of Market Tops

Lowry Research data looks at only stocks listed on the NYSE. Now, there are many issues other than stocks traded on the NYSE so the data gets muddy. For my work, I calculate the % of issues making 52-week highs using all issues traded on the NYSE. Further, the methodology for new-highs has also changed over the years. Still, while my methodology may not be as “pure” as the Lowry Research work, it is still a very useful metric. Currently, my data is not calling for a top. Could it change? Of course.

I increased stock holdings Friday, based on good signs from indicators, raising my investment in stocks to about 55% of the portfolio.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

ISM Manufacturing ... Construction Spending ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).

REPUBLICANS WOBBLY ON WORK (WSJ-excerpt)
“In 1996 a Republican Congress passed, and President Clinton signed, a bipartisan bill imposing a work requirement of 30 hours a week for households with at least one working-age parent and 35 hours a week for households with two parents as a condition for receiving benefits under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program. Today, inflation-adjusted federal welfare spending is 2.7 times its 1996 level, the budget deficit is nine times as high, and the federal debt is four times as large. Polling data show unprecedented support for work requirements. Yet the welfare reform in the House reconciliation bill, which is now pending in the Senate, merely requires 20 hours a week as a condition for able-bodied working-age adults with no dependents to receive Medicaid and expands the current 30-hour requirement of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, to more beneficiaries. Why are these GOP work requirements weaker than those a Democratic president backed?” - Phil Gramm and Michael Solon. Mr Gramm is former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Solon is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/republicans-go-wobbly-on-work-fff6703b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAh_9__vZr6zgvsnd2XdeMIVFHZOBS-PJU6t-DVUDiCNGbD5S_Bm4lq5LvMq4WA%3D&gaa_ts=68633c2e&gaa_sig=MVQqU3CUIUhxAZgM_dpUZ77qp2ozn_Nc3tPDeZBKKcrniLtatwUCfKmwwyLjDKss0WvyN-O5ciKRDFAB8oBL4A%3D%3D

ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the fourth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®...“In June, U.S. manufacturing activity slowed its rate of contraction, with improvements in inventories and production the biggest factors in the 0.5 percentage point gain in the Manufacturing PMI®.” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/june/

CONSTRUCTION SENDING (ENR)
“Total construction spending fell for the fourth consecutive month in May, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Since April, spending fell 0.3%, while the year-over-year decline reached 3.5%. ‘Uncertainty about tariffs, tax rates and labor availability are making it hard for many developers to risk moving forward with planned construction projects...’” Story at...
https://www.enr.com/articles/60973-construction-spending-continued-to-decline-in-may

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6198.
-VIX rose about 0.6% to 16.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.242% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained bullish at +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.

It’s not surprising to see some decline in indicators. They don’t remain super-bullish for very long and +18, yesterday’s value was very bullish. A small decline from extreme highs is normal and is not a sign of weakness unless there is a reversal in trend.

Tuesday, there was high, unchanged-volume. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen, but the indicators have been very bullish. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

One of the new bear indicators was the buying-pressure minus selling pressure indicator. Moving averages of selling-pressure slightly exceeded buying-pressure. The difference was so small that it’s probably not significant. We’ll need to follow this indicator to see if it makes a significant decline. Overall though, indicators look good.

I increased stock holdings Friday, based on good signs from indicators, raising my investment in stocks to about 55% of the portfolio.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish. Cautiously, because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)