ADP Jobs ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
TRANSGENDER KIDS USUALY GROW UP GAY (WSJ – EXCERPT)
“After the Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s ban on puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones for minors, “LGBT” organizations issued statements condemning the court’s decision. I’m gay, and I welcome the court’s decision. So-called gender-affirming is a new form of “conversion therapy.” Instead of “praying away the gay,” we are “transing” it away. The practice of pediatric gender medicine began as an attempt to engineer homosexual adolescents medically into straight adults. If left alone, almost all gender-distressed children grow up to be gay, not adults who reject their natural sex... Of the first 70 adolescents to be treated with this protocol [puberty blockers, opposite sex hormones], 62 were homosexual, six were bisexual, one was heterosexual, and one didn’t know yet... Meantime, how dare the leaders of LGBT organizations accuse people like me of hatred and bigotry, when they support regressive medical practices that are antithetical to everything the gay-liberation movement once stood for?” – Ben Appel, author of “Cis White Gay: The Making of a Gender Heretic.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/transgender-kids-usually-grow-up-gay-c71b3cd8?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAg5G3c7PytkHNfAXX-egQW11boLK4kYLFuibbHYi8dXa4JsoTjFQzQu5eunCSU%3D&gaa_ts=68646e18&gaa_sig=ej4oGS4nDxVfoLBn5DvsWXjx9x-_Mb00m_b0U7iX4F71h_8C5N5u4fuYTxmeirKfcZOOo7M-pPepDHWvK-n2jw%3D%3D
 
APD JOBS REPORT (CNBC)
“Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe... Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/adp-jobs-report-june-2025.html
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 419 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 9% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6227.
-VIX declined about 1% to 16.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.283% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a bullish at +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.
 
I heard one of the hosts on CNBC state today that we are seeing the “Narrowest breadth ever for an all-time high.” Maybe I didn’t hear it correctly, because my numbers show otherwise. Wednesday, 4.4% of issues traded on the NYSE made new-52-week highs today. That was below the 5-year average for what we typically see at all-time highs, but it is above a number that signals trouble in my system.
 
Here’s some more information on the subject from Lowry Research.
According to their website, Lowry Research is the oldest continuously published Technical Investment Advisory in the U.S. They have published a number of technical papers on stock market analysis. One of them states: “Our original 2006 study titled “An Exploration of the Nature of Bull Market Tops” (updated to include the 2007 Bull market peak) examined every Bull market top since 1929 and found that, on the final top day of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, less than 11% of common stocks listed for trading on the New York Stock Exchange were also making new highs. In the 1929 case, when the DJIA made its final high on Sept. 3rd, the percentage of NYSE-listed stocks at new highs was just 2.3%...” – The Warning Signs of Market Tops
 
Lowry Research data looks at only stocks listed on the NYSE. Now, there are many issues other than stocks traded on the NYSE so the data gets muddy. For my work, I calculate the % of issues making 52-week highs using all issues traded on the NYSE. Further, the methodology for new-highs has also changed over the years. Still, while my methodology may not be as “pure” as the Lowry Research work, it is still a very useful metric. Currently, my data is not calling for a top. Could it change? Of course.
 
I increased stock holdings Friday, based on good signs from indicators, raising my investment in stocks to about 55% of the portfolio.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.