I’ll be posting late for the next few days. It’s a busy
time.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX).
Tax-and-spend-Democrats or Cut-Tax-and-Spend Republicans
– it makes no difference.
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 426 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6263.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.342% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained bullish at +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.
The S&P 50 again closed very near its lower trend
line. We don’t want to see the lower trendline broken. On the other hand, as we
have noted earlier, the S&P 500 has been exhibiting a parabolic rose. It
would be a good sign if the rate of advance on the S&P 500 slowed to a more
normal climb. So, I won’t get too wound-up if the lower trendline is broken.
All-in-all, things look generally bullish, although futures
Wednesday night are down about 0.25% as I write this.
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 426 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6263.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.342% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained bullish at +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.
I remain cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals
is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from
the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in
stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is
my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher;
30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
