“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“Iran’s leadership has made a high-stakes calculation in its showdown with President Trump: maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz is a nonnegotiable red line. By asserting authority over a critical waterway for global crude-oil flows, Tehran is betting that its ability to inflict pain on the American economy is its best leverage to avoid future military action from the U.S. and Israel.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-strait-of-hormuz-trump-talks-ec566cd7
“Private sector employment increased by 44,000 jobs in July and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the July ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").” Report at…
https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-08-05-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-44,000-Jobs-in-July-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-4
My cmt: This was the weakest monthly gain since January.
“Initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 in the United States for the week ending July 25, 2026 — up 9,000 from the prior week but below economists’ forecasts of 200,000, according to the Department of Labor.” Story at…
https://news.outsourceaccelerator.com/us-jobless-claims-197000/
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7724.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.81.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.615% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 2 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +17 to +19 (19 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
- Bollinger Bands were overbought again Wednesday. RSI is not overbought. I use these signals together. If they are not both overbought, I ignore it.
- Late-day action is bearish. I use a variation of the Hayes Indicator for this signal.
“The Don Hayes Smart Money Index (SMI)—originally created by Lynn Elgert and popularized by Don Hayes—is a technical indicator that compares investor behavior at the start of the trading day to behavior at the end of the day, helping traders spot institutional accumulation or distribution.” From…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/smart-money-index-smi-145933179.html
I’m bullish, but markets could still get Trumped.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
