“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The public embarrassment of Bud Light missing the mark
on an advertising campaign has cost the company billions in sales and market
capitalization. Guess whose brainchild it was to plaster a flamboyant
transvestite’s picture on its blue-collar beer brand? An out-of-touch, virtue
signaling leftie, Mrs. Alissa Heinerscheid. And … wait for it … wait for it … a
Harvard, Groton and Wharton grad...In a leftist word salad worthy of a Kamala
Harris speech, her stated goal with Bud was “inclusivity and shifting the
tone.” No, your job is to sell beer, usually to middle-aged white men who have
very real and very hard jobs that provide goods and services to people like
you.” – Ron Hart, libertarian op-ed humorist and author.
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
“The
Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the
U.S. fell by 1.2 percent in March 2023 to 108.4 (2016=100)...The U.S. LEI fell
to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic
conditions ahead...The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will
intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming
months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Fox Business)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment
benefits rose more than expected last week, evidence the labor
market is continuing to soften in the face of higher borrowing costs.
Figures
released Thursday by
the Labor Department show initial claims for the week ended April 15 rose by
5,000 to 245,000.” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jobless-claims-rise-higher-expected-layoffs-continue-mount
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX (RTT News)
“Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity unexpectedly
contracted at an accelerated rate in the month of April, according to a report
released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday. The Philly
Fed said its diffusion index for current activity slumped to a negative 31.3 in
April...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3357443/philly-fed-index-unexpectedly-slumps-to-nearly-three-year-low-in-april.aspx
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 0.6% to 4130.
-VIX rose about 4% to 17.17.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 3.538%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.9% as of today. 25.4% max (on a
closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 325-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.4%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much
recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the
sector. We have a good dividend in the
meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday
warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the
near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/boeing-warns-of-reduced-737-max-production-and-deliveries-due-to-parts-issue.html
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not
encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for
me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Here’s the S&P 500 chart from the present going back
to mid-January. We can clearly see an ascending triangle. I am not a huge chart
guy, but I do look occasionally. Here’s what Investopedia has to say.
“An ascending triangle is generally considered to be a
continuation pattern, meaning that the pattern is significant if it occurs
within an uptrend or downtrend. Once the breakout from the triangle
occurs, traders tend to aggressively buy or sell the asset depending on which
direction the price broke out.” - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/ascendingtriangle.asp#:~:text=An%20ascending%20triangle%20is%20a,for%20breakouts%20from%20triangle%20patterns.
The key here is which way will the pattern go? This
pattern is considered to be a continuation pattern; it should continue the
upward trend that has been in place since March. If the S&P 500 breaks the
lower trend line we could see some “aggressive” selling (in theory), at least
if the pattern is correct. The triangle is nearing a point where the upper and
lower trend lines are close to crossing.
A cross should see the pattern end and we’ll see a break, one way or the
other, if it hasn’t already occurred by then.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) improved from +2 to +3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved
from +6 to +7. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral. At this
point, the Buy signal just means that the market is looking positive.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as
always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Throughout this process we have sought accountability
and believed the evidence brought to light through this case underscored the
consequences of spreading lies. Truthful reporting in the media is essential to
our democracy,” - John Poulos, CEO Dominion Voting Systems, commenting on the
nearly $800-million settlement Fox News paid to Dominion over Fox claims that
Dominion equipment helped Biden win the 2020 election.
FED BEIGE BOOK (Bloomberg)
“The US economy stalled in recent weeks, with hiring and
inflation slowing and access to credit narrowing, the Federal Reserve said in
its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. ‘Overall economic activity
was little changed in recent weeks,’ the Fed said Wednesday in the report,
published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open
Market Committee. ‘Several districts noted that banks tightened lending
standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity.’” Story
at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-19/us-economy-stalled-in-recent-weeks-fed-s-beige-book-says#xj4y7vzkg
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.6 million barrels from the
previous week. At 466.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
2% above the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 4155.
-VIX declined about 2% to 16.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.594%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.4% as of today. 25.4% max (on a
closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 324-days.
The S&P 500 is 5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much
recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the
sector. We have a good dividend in the
meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday
warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the
near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/boeing-warns-of-reduced-737-max-production-and-deliveries-due-to-parts-issue.html
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not
encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for
me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I mentioned the Blah market yesterday where not much is
happening. You can’t get much more blah
than “unchanged” and that was the story for the S&P 500 today. For the
S&P, 4180 continues to be a point of overhead resistance. The S&P 500
hasn’t been there since 2 February. I guess we’re still waiting for earnings
and the FED. Currently, the Fed is expected to raise rates another quarter
point and then pause.
Indicators are following the price moves in the S&P 500 and are not
giving a strong signal in any direction.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) improved from -5 to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +8 to +6. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral. At
this point, the Buy signal just means that the market is looking positive.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as
always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Fox Business)
“Housing starts slid 0.8% last month to an annual rate of
1.42 million units...in a sign the deep freeze that has paralyzed the housing
market for months is not over yet, applications to build – which measures
future construction – tumbled 8.8% to an annualized rate of 1.41 million units.”
Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-starts-resume-downward-spiral-march-building-permits-plummet
BULLARD SAYS RECESSION FEARS OFF-BASE (Yahoo Finance /
Bloomberg)
“Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James
Bullard said he favored continued interest-rate hikes to counter persistent
inflation, while recession fears are overblown... While Fed staff economists
were predicting a mild recession, according to minutes of the March Fed
meeting, Bullard disagreed. “The labor market just seems very, very strong,”
Bullard said, according to Reuters. With the prospect of a hot jobs market
supporting strong consumption, “it doesn’t seem like the moment to be
predicting that you have a recession in the second half of 2023,” he said.”
Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-bullard-says-recession-fears-135802225.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4155.
-VIX fell about 0.7% to 16.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.578%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a
closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 323-days.
The S&P 500 is 5.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much
recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the
sector. We have a good dividend in the
meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday
warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the
near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/boeing-warns-of-reduced-737-max-production-and-deliveries-due-to-parts-issue.html
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not
encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for
me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Blah market continues. The S&P 500 has not been
able to get above its early February highs; the weekly rundown of indicators
finished last week neutral (12-bear and 12-bull). (These indicators tend to be
both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report
on daily.); and selling pressure continues to slightly outpace buying pressure.
None of these signs are bullish, but they are not particularly bearish either,
since the bulls vs bears are evenly matched in other indicators. Markets are in
a holding pattern and, so far, we don’t have good signs regarding which way
they might break. Earnings may give a better clue as we get further into
earnings season.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from -3 to -5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +21 to +8. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as
always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually
about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (Reuters)
“The New York Federal Reserve said on Monday its
barometer of manufacturing activity in New York State increased for the first
time in five months in April as measures of new orders and shipments surged. The
regional Fed's "Empire State" index on current business conditions
jumped 35.4 points to a reading of 10.8 this month.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/new-york-factory-activity-rebounds-april-ny-fed-2023-04-17/
A reading above zero indicates manufacturing is growing.
CRUDE OIL AT MAJOR PRICE LOW PER COT REPORT (McClellan
Financial Publications)
“Every Friday, the CFTC publishes its weekly Commitment
of Traders (COT) Report, detailing how many futures contracts exist, and how
many are owned by different groups of traders...commercial traders have raised
their net short position just slightly, matching the price action. But
they are still net short as a group in a very minimal way, indicating that
there is a lot more room for oil prices to rise before this indicator would say
that prices have risen too far.” Commentary/analysis at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/crude_oil_at_major_price_low_per_cot_report_data/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4151.
-VIX fell about 0.7% to 16.95.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.593%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a
closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 322-days.
The S&P 500 is 5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.9% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much
recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the
sector. We have a good dividend in the
meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday
warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the
near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/boeing-warns-of-reduced-737-max-production-and-deliveries-due-to-parts-issue.html
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not
encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for
me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The weekly rundown of indicators finished last week
neutral (12-bear and 12-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and
short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.) Not much changed today. I won’t reset leveraged positions until I see
more bullish signs from indicators.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) remained -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +31 to +21.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as
always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked
Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“What happened to the banking system, and what I see in
data on lending falling off the cliff, really portends a much bigger decline in
economic activity...I am shocked that no one at the Fed has cited the reduction
in lending that has occurred — almost the most in 75 years, actually." -
Jeremy Siegel, Professor Wharton School of Business, Univ of Pennsylvania.
"The S&P 500 has now spent more than 25 weeks
above its 200-week moving average. Since 1950, there are zero instances of the
S&P 500 making a new low once it has recovered above the 200-week moving
average and spent at least 15 weeks there." – Tom Lee, Fundstrat.
“A practical date for Net Zero, 2080, would be consistent
with the natural cycle of asset ageing and replacement, protecting the economic
interests of our children and grandchildren. It would also seem to stand a
better chance of delivering a sustainable low carbon future. The 2050 target is
on a collision course with reality.” - Gordon Hughes, retired Professor of
Economics at the University of Edinburgh, and a former senior adviser on energy
and environmental policy at the World Bank.
RETAIL SALES (YahooFinance / Reuters)
“U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in March as
consumers cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big ticket items,
suggesting that the economy was losing steam at the end of the first quarter
because of higher interest rates. Retail sales dropped 1.0% last month...”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-retail-sales-fall-more-124244953.html
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Yahoo Finance)
“Production at U.S. factories fell more than expected in
March, but eked out a modest gain in the first quarter.
Manufacturing output dropped 0.5% last month...” Story
at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-output-falls-march-135302440.html
UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four
months, dropping about 8% below February but remaining 4% above a year ago.
This month’s turmoil in the banking sector had limited impact on consumer
sentiment, which was already exhibiting downward momentum prior to the collapse
of Silicon Valley Bank. Overall, our data revealed multiple signs that
consumers increasingly expect a recession ahead.” Story at...
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
BEARS WRONG AGAIN (Heritage Capital)
“Except for a few pauses to refresh I have stayed steadfastly
positive all year and dating back to September. And that’s the way I remain
today. It’s amazing how many investors spin narratives rather than watch market
action... Just like with most bull markets, the masses hate and disavow until
at least half of the rally is over...The next recession is definitely coming.
And the data point to later in 2023 or the first half of 2024.” Commentary
at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/bears-are-wrong-yet-again/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 4138.
-VIX fell about 4% to 17.07.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.519%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a
closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 321-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.6%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much
recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the
sector. We have a good dividend in the
meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday
warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the
near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/boeing-warns-of-reduced-737-max-production-and-deliveries-due-to-parts-issue.html
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not
encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for
me. I have no cash left.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 is now at the same level it was on 1 February.
That is a worry, but indicators are not suggesting that we need to be in panic
mode.
The weekly rundown of indicators slipped, and finished
this week neutral (now 12-bear and 12-bull). (These indicators tend to be both
long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on
daily.)
BULL SIGNS
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on
the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on
the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a
rare, very-bullish sign. It will stay bullish until the McClellan Oscillator
turns negative.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(breadth) made a bullish crossover 12 April.
-Slope of the 200-dMA is rising.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 21
March.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is
bullish.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been slightly
larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA
are both above the 20-dEMA.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term
momentum is bullish.
-61% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the
last 10-days – bullish.
NEUTRAL
-There was a Distribution Day 12 April, not enough to
send a signal.
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big
moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the
S&P 500.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5
standard deviations 27 March, but new-lows subsequently outpaced new-highs so
this goes into the expired/neutral category.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index
is neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions
–neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions -
neutral.
-RSI (Very close to overbought.)
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March. Another one will
push this into the Bear category.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a
panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-VIX indicator.
-The S&P 500 is 4.7% above its 200-dMA. (Bear
indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April 2022 –
expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is
no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too
narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now
Expired
-S&P 500 is underperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF), but
not by much. Let’s say neutral.
BEAR SIGNS
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) has been below 50%, for 3 days in a row – bearish.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is on the
sell side and falling.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-12 April there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of
up-days) is falling.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P
500.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there are
12 bear-signs and 12-Bull. Last week, there were 10 bear-sign and 14
bull-signs.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from zero to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +39 to +31. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped
to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull, but I’ll be watching
indicators as always. The Friday rundown
of indicators might be interesting.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Forecasters said there is a 62% chance El Niño will take
over between May and July. The probability that El Niño will form by fall is
even higher, between 80% and 90%.” – Nexstar, WAVY-10 Norfolk.
My cmt: This is good news for the east coast since El
Nino suppresses Atlantic hurricanes.
PPI / CORE PPI (CNN)
"Core PPI, which excludes the more volatile components of
food and energy, declined 0.1% for the month and, for the 12 months ended in
March was up 3.4%, down from the upwardly revised level of 4.8%. Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/13/economy/ppi-inflation-march/index.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“U.S. applications for jobless benefits rose to their
highest level in more than a year, but remain at relatively low levels despite
efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool the economy and job market in its battle
against inflation. Jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending April 8 rose
by 11,000 to 239,000 from the previous week...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-jobless-claim-applications-highest-year-98554418
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.3% to 4146.
-VIX fell about 7% to 17.8.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.447%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a
closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 320-days.
The S&P 500 is 5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.8% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much
recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the
sector. We have a good dividend in the
meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Today, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on
Thursday warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max
airplane in the near term because of a problem with a part made by
supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/boeing-warns-of-reduced-737-max-production-and-deliveries-due-to-parts-issue.html
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not
encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for
me. I have no cash left.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a
down-day about 60% of the time.
RSI is overbought today and that too, suggests a
down-day. Bollinger Bands were not overbought and there were no other top
indicators giving warnings, so it does not look like there is a serious downturn
starting.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from +4 to zero (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +47 to +39. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: VOLUME & PRICE are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull, but I’ll be watching
indicators as always. The Friday rundown
of indicators might be interesting.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
