“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“What happened to the banking system, and what I see in
data on lending falling off the cliff, really portends a much bigger decline in
economic activity...I am shocked that no one at the Fed has cited the reduction
in lending that has occurred — almost the most in 75 years, actually." -
Jeremy Siegel, Professor Wharton School of Business, Univ of Pennsylvania.
"The S&P 500 has now spent more than 25 weeks
above its 200-week moving average. Since 1950, there are zero instances of the
S&P 500 making a new low once it has recovered above the 200-week moving
average and spent at least 15 weeks there." – Tom Lee, Fundstrat.
“A practical date for Net Zero, 2080, would be consistent
with the natural cycle of asset ageing and replacement, protecting the economic
interests of our children and grandchildren. It would also seem to stand a
better chance of delivering a sustainable low carbon future. The 2050 target is
on a collision course with reality.” - Gordon Hughes, retired Professor of
Economics at the University of Edinburgh, and a former senior adviser on energy
and environmental policy at the World Bank.
RETAIL SALES (YahooFinance / Reuters)
“U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in March as consumers cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big ticket items, suggesting that the economy was losing steam at the end of the first quarter because of higher interest rates. Retail sales dropped 1.0% last month...”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-retail-sales-fall-more-124244953.html
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Yahoo Finance)
“Production at U.S. factories fell more than expected in March, but eked out a modest gain in the first quarter.
Manufacturing output dropped 0.5% last month...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-output-falls-march-135302440.html
UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months, dropping about 8% below February but remaining 4% above a year ago. This month’s turmoil in the banking sector had limited impact on consumer sentiment, which was already exhibiting downward momentum prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Overall, our data revealed multiple signs that consumers increasingly expect a recession ahead.” Story at...
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
BEARS WRONG AGAIN (Heritage Capital)
“Except for a few pauses to refresh I have stayed steadfastly positive all year and dating back to September. And that’s the way I remain today. It’s amazing how many investors spin narratives rather than watch market action... Just like with most bull markets, the masses hate and disavow until at least half of the rally is over...The next recession is definitely coming. And the data point to later in 2023 or the first half of 2024.” Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/bears-are-wrong-yet-again/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 4138.
-VIX fell about 4% to 17.07.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.519%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 321-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.6% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday
warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the
near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me. I have no cash left.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 is now at the same level it was on 1 February. That is a worry, but indicators are not suggesting that we need to be in panic mode.
The weekly rundown of indicators slipped, and finished
this week neutral (now 12-bear and 12-bull). (These indicators tend to be both
long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on
daily.)
BULL SIGNS
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign. It will stay bullish until the McClellan Oscillator turns negative.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 12 April.
-Slope of the 200-dMA is rising.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 21 March.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been slightly larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-61% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days – bullish.
NEUTRAL
-There was a Distribution Day 12 April, not enough to send a signal.
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations 27 March, but new-lows subsequently outpaced new-highs so this goes into the expired/neutral category.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions –neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI (Very close to overbought.)
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March. Another one will push this into the Bear category.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-VIX indicator.
-The S&P 500 is 4.7% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April 2022 – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-S&P 500 is underperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF), but not by much. Let’s say neutral.
BEAR SIGNS
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for 3 days in a row – bearish.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is on the sell side and falling.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-12 April there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is falling.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there are
12 bear-signs and 12-Bull. Last week, there were 10 bear-sign and 14
bull-signs.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from zero to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +39 to +31. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped
to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull, but I’ll be watching
indicators as always. The Friday rundown
of indicators might be interesting.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in March as consumers cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big ticket items, suggesting that the economy was losing steam at the end of the first quarter because of higher interest rates. Retail sales dropped 1.0% last month...”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-retail-sales-fall-more-124244953.html
“Production at U.S. factories fell more than expected in March, but eked out a modest gain in the first quarter.
Manufacturing output dropped 0.5% last month...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-output-falls-march-135302440.html
“Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months, dropping about 8% below February but remaining 4% above a year ago. This month’s turmoil in the banking sector had limited impact on consumer sentiment, which was already exhibiting downward momentum prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Overall, our data revealed multiple signs that consumers increasingly expect a recession ahead.” Story at...
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
“Except for a few pauses to refresh I have stayed steadfastly positive all year and dating back to September. And that’s the way I remain today. It’s amazing how many investors spin narratives rather than watch market action... Just like with most bull markets, the masses hate and disavow until at least half of the rally is over...The next recession is definitely coming. And the data point to later in 2023 or the first half of 2024.” Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/bears-are-wrong-yet-again/
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 4138.
-VIX fell about 4% to 17.07.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.519%.
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 321-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.6% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me. I have no cash left.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
The S&P 500 is now at the same level it was on 1 February. That is a worry, but indicators are not suggesting that we need to be in panic mode.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign. It will stay bullish until the McClellan Oscillator turns negative.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 12 April.
-Slope of the 200-dMA is rising.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 21 March.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been slightly larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-61% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days – bullish.
-There was a Distribution Day 12 April, not enough to send a signal.
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations 27 March, but new-lows subsequently outpaced new-highs so this goes into the expired/neutral category.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions –neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI (Very close to overbought.)
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March. Another one will push this into the Bear category.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-VIX indicator.
-The S&P 500 is 4.7% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April 2022 – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-S&P 500 is underperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF), but not by much. Let’s say neutral.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for 3 days in a row – bearish.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is on the sell side and falling.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-12 April there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is falling.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
