“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (Reuters)
“The New York Federal Reserve said on Monday its barometer of manufacturing activity in New York State increased for the first time in five months in April as measures of new orders and shipments surged. The regional Fed's "Empire State" index on current business conditions jumped 35.4 points to a reading of 10.8 this month.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/new-york-factory-activity-rebounds-april-ny-fed-2023-04-17/
A reading above zero indicates manufacturing is growing.
CRUDE OIL AT MAJOR PRICE LOW PER COT REPORT (McClellan
Financial Publications)
“Every Friday, the CFTC publishes its weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, detailing how many futures contracts exist, and how many are owned by different groups of traders...commercial traders have raised their net short position just slightly, matching the price action. But they are still net short as a group in a very minimal way, indicating that there is a lot more room for oil prices to rise before this indicator would say that prices have risen too far.” Commentary/analysis at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/crude_oil_at_major_price_low_per_cot_report_data/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4151.
-VIX fell about 0.7% to 16.95.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.593%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 322-days.
The S&P 500 is 5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday
warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the
near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The weekly rundown of indicators finished last week neutral (12-bear and 12-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.) Not much changed today. I won’t reset leveraged positions until I see more bullish signs from indicators.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) remained -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +31 to +21.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as
always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“The New York Federal Reserve said on Monday its barometer of manufacturing activity in New York State increased for the first time in five months in April as measures of new orders and shipments surged. The regional Fed's "Empire State" index on current business conditions jumped 35.4 points to a reading of 10.8 this month.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/new-york-factory-activity-rebounds-april-ny-fed-2023-04-17/
A reading above zero indicates manufacturing is growing.
“Every Friday, the CFTC publishes its weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, detailing how many futures contracts exist, and how many are owned by different groups of traders...commercial traders have raised their net short position just slightly, matching the price action. But they are still net short as a group in a very minimal way, indicating that there is a lot more room for oil prices to rise before this indicator would say that prices have risen too far.” Commentary/analysis at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/crude_oil_at_major_price_low_per_cot_report_data/
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4151.
-VIX fell about 0.7% to 16.95.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.593%.
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 322-days.
The S&P 500 is 5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
The weekly rundown of indicators finished last week neutral (12-bear and 12-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.) Not much changed today. I won’t reset leveraged positions until I see more bullish signs from indicators.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
