(CNSNews.com) – “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke said that the labor market “remains far from normal” and that the
economy is expected to grow much slower than the Fed had previously estimated
through the presidential election.
‘Specifically, their (Fed governors’) projections
for growth in real GDP this year…have a central tendency of 2.2 to 2.7 percent.
These forecasts were considerably lower than the projections…made last June.’
Because of the
reduced economic growth projections, Bernanke said that the Fed does not expect
significant improvement in the job market.
Full
story at: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/bernanke-job-market-far-normal-slow-growth-expected-through-2012
The
S&P 500 greeted the tepid announcement with a yawn and finished the day at
1366, about 1/2% down on the day. (There was a big drop in the morning may have
been due to a mistaken computer trade; but it wasn’t related to Bernanke
because he had barely spoken more than a few words when the markets fell
quickly.)
You
may recall that in a past Blog post I noted that the correction we had in 2012
mirrored the S&P 500 correction that occurred in 2011 in depth and
duration. In 2011, we hit the top in
February, so if this indeed were to be a mirror image; it would be time to sell
soon. It’s never really that easy
though, so I am not suggesting that it is time to sell. The 1099 low last October 3rd was
significant for a number of reasons already discussed (1 Feb 2012; 3Jan 2012; 7
Dec 201; 3 Nov 2011). After that sort of
significant bottom (if I am right about its significance) the following bull
markets have lasted at least 7-months, but on average have lasted 26-months. My point is simply I will pay a lot of
attention to possible signs of an end to this cyclical bull within our ongoing secular
bear market.
The
NTSM Price and Volume indicators have been deteriorating for about the last
2-weeks. The VIX indicator has been
deteriorating for the past month. Even
so, Price and VIX indicators are still positive. Sentiment has been pulling back and that is a positive sign too.
Today,
Wednesday, the NTSM analysis remains BUY.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a
high tolerance for risk.
