Here’s
an update on inflows into Long term US Equity Mutual Funds from ICI. Buying is shown by red dots above the zero
line; selling is shown below the line.
The black squares are the S&P 500.
The scale for the inflows (in red) is in millions. That means that 30-billion dollars were taken
out in 1-week at the bottom.
The
chart shows that mutual fund stock investors are just beginning to get back
into stocks. That happened about 3-months before the top
last time, but that isn’t really a prediction.
This data isn’t a good enough predictor to base buying and selling
decisions in your portfolio. However, as
a general rule, when everyone else is buying. It’s time to sell. If everyone is selling, it’s time to buy.
The
S&P was up slightly more than 1/4% today.
VIX fell 7.5%.
Today
the NTSM analysis remained BUY.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a
high tolerance for risk.
