Crude
oil has become the next worry as the national average for gasoline was $3.58 as
of Tuesday. That’s about 50-cents higher
than it was when the Great Recession started.
As reported by the World Harold, “Ben
Brockwell, director of data pricing and information services for the Oil Price
Information Service, said Thursday he expects gas to reach a national average
of $4.25, breaking the record of $4.11 set in July 2008.” Full story at… http://www.kearneyhub.com/news/local/article_d9d6672e-5e5f-11e1-ae83-001871e3ce6c.html
The
Morgan Stanly Cyclical Index continues to outperform the S&P 500. YTD it’s about 7% ahead. That’s a stat I look at to get an idea
whether the pros are selling out of cyclical stocks in anticipation of a
recession. So far that appears not to be
the case.
The
S&P 500 closed at 1363, up roughly 1/2% Thursday. VIX dropped almost 8% to 16.80. The NTSM VIX indicator switched back to buy
and that was enough to boost the NTSM analysis too.
Thursday
the NTSM analysis switched back to BUY..
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a
high tolerance for risk.
