Thursday, February 16, 2012

Jobless Numbers were better than expected today…

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- "That today's [jobless] number was not only better than expected but much better than expected can only be received warmly, providing further evidence that at least on the firing side of things, the labor market is improving considerably," Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist, BITG, said in a note. "If this trend continues, one would have to believe, given previous relationships, that the monthly employment report will begin printing 200,000 plus job additions on a regular basis….The January producer price index rose 0.1%, after falling 0.1% in December. Core producer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% in January, the largest increase since July, following a rise of 0.3% in December. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said manufacturing activity in the region picked up in February. The bank's general activity index rose to a reading of 10.2 from 7.3 in January."... Full story from…. http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11421635/1/stock-market-story-feb16.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

There seems to be a lot of discussion going on that suggests that Greece won’t get the bailouts and will default.  The discussion seems to be, maybe that won’t be so bad.  We’ll see.

The S&P was up slightly more than 1% today.  VIX fell 9% today to 19.22

Today the NTSM analysis moved back to BUY. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.