Oil Expert, Chris Cook, predicts $2.50 gas

Excerpts from a commentary in the Asia Times (28 Feb 2012):

“The oil markets are completely manipulated and orchestrated, and the conductors of the orchestra have the benefit of having already held a rehearsal in 2008.

What is now happening is the end game: an orchestrated wave of noise that is drawing in speculative money. This is enabling the producers who are actually in the know to hedge by selling production forward during what they confidently expect will be a temporary - and pre-planned - managed fall in the oil price.

In my view, the steep decline which is planned could easily get out of hand in a not dissimilar way to the tin market in 1985 when the price collapsed - literally overnight - from $8,000 per ton to $4,000 per ton.

…absent a massive, and sustained, shortfall in oil supplies - which I cannot see occurring, since all involved have every interest in ensuring it does not occur - the oil price will, as I have already forecast, fall dramatically by the end of this year's second quarter at the latest. It's not a matter of if, but when it will happen.”

Chris Cook is a former director of the International Petroleum Exchange. He is now a strategic market consultant, entrepreneur and commentator.
Full story at...http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/NB28Dj05.html

The S&P 500 closed today at 1372, up 1/3%.  VIX was down slightly more than 1% to 18.  The S&P 500 continues to move up and the Dow broke 15,000.  There are a lot of late comers to the party!  That’s what this market needs to keep going – buyers.  Sentiment is very bullish, but is not yet extreme, so as of today, sentiment looks OK.

Today, Tuesday, the NTSM analysis remains BUY. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.