“I have been aggressively sounding the alarm in my various writings here on MarketWatch and in media appearances since Friday that I am deeply concerned with the behavior of credit markets...emerging market debt and junk collapsed relative to Treasuries in a way that suggests a credit event may be upon us...the risk of a more serious breakdown in stocks remains very real in the very short-term. Full story at:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-crash-risk-remains-very-real-2012-05-23?link=MW_Nav_TD
MARKET
The S&P 500 was UP
slightly (0.2%) Wednesday to 1319 (rounded off). VIX fell 0.67% to 22.3.
The S&P 500 remains 3%
above the 200-day moving average and 7% below the prior high of 1419. The market is overdue for a bounce. The S&P
500 might get back to the 1350’s, but the trend remains down and the correction is far from over.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis is SELL
again Wednesday.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I reduced my stock
holdings to 30% (0% in stock in the 401k) at S&P 1358 after the SELL signal
on 9 May 2012. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the
right side of this page). I cut my stock
position to 15% on 17 May in order to maintain a 10% gain in a
trading/longer-term position I had in the QQQ.
