NEW YORK (CNNMoney) – “Private
companies are pulling back on hiring.
Businesses added just 119,000 jobs in April, according to a report issued Wednesday by payroll-processing company ADP. The number fell far short of the 170,000 jobs economists were expecting... Earlier this year, the same report showed companies added 201,000 jobs in March and 228,000 jobs in February... said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, ‘I don't consider this to be a good number.’” Full story at:
http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/02/news/economy/adp-jobs-report/
Businesses added just 119,000 jobs in April, according to a report issued Wednesday by payroll-processing company ADP. The number fell far short of the 170,000 jobs economists were expecting... Earlier this year, the same report showed companies added 201,000 jobs in March and 228,000 jobs in February... said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, ‘I don't consider this to be a good number.’” Full story at:
http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/02/news/economy/adp-jobs-report/
John Hussman’s reasoning
was that there never was any increased hiring over the winter; it was all due
to the guesswork associated with “seasonal adjustments” that were invalid due
to the warm winter. Optimists may suggest
that there was early hiring during the mild-winter that pulled ahead hiring
that might have otherwise have occurred in the spring. Either way, it will be a drag on the market.
A FEW WORDS FROM THE STOCK
DISCUSSION BOARDS
“Even as I type this,
FoxBiz is gushing over HOW MUCH Apple and Amazon beat their
"expectations". Yes, the fix
is in, the game is rigged, and the Financial Media, including Fox, are
willingly complicit partners in the fraud being perpetrated upon us.”
Another post: “I can
remember guests on the old Wall Street Week saying that bear markets don't end
with a whimper.”
THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was DOWN
1/4% Wednesday to 1402. VIX rose 1.7% to
16.9.
There’s plenty of news,
but whether it’s good or bad seems to vary daily. The market just may meander with the news
until there is a clear direction. That
has been apparent in our analysis too, but not today.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis switched
to BUY today, Wednesday, based on the VIX indicator and the Price indicator
(the best and worst indicators respectively).
VIX is buy because the VIX
overall, has been falling and has remained in a narrow band downtrend, even
though it was up slightly today. The
Price indicator is a Price-volume relationship based on a ratio of Up to Down
moves. Essentially, the up-moves have
been bigger than the down-moves over the last month or so. This is far from my favorite indicator
because it is frequently an outlier.
While I like Buy
indicators better than Sell indicators, keep in mind that the NTSM analysis can
switch from Buy to Sell (or vice versa) in a couple of days and we are closer
to a top than a bottom.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the
stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy
signal. I remain 100% long in the
long-term portfolio (and 100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 100% in stocks is quite extreme so don’t do
it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.
