GREECE (from
CNBC)
Greece will leave the euro zone on June 18 if the populist government wins the country's elections on the 17...Nick Dewhirst, director at wealth management firm Integral Asset Management, told CNBC.com Monday... "The basic question is that a German has to increase working from 65 to 67...to pay for Greeks retiring at 50. The 17th of June is the perfect opportunity (for the Greeks) to say either 'we'll behave' or 'we'll carry on cheating,'" he said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47587509
RANDOM NEWS FROM BLOOMBERG (all marginally worse)
“The Dallas Fed general business activity index in April turned negative after three months of positive readings, falling from 10.8 to minus 3.4. But the overall report was mixed, but mostly turning less positive or mildly negative.”
“The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in April slipped three tenths to a no better than soft 69.2.... This decline is in direct contrast to the consumer sentiment index which, in data released on Friday by Reuters/University of Michigan, broke out to new recovery highs.”
“State Street Investor Confidence Index (The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence by looking at actual levels of risk in investment portfolios. This is not an attitude survey.)... Demand for safety by institutional investors rose again this month reflected in the investor confidence index which fell deeper below 100 to 86.4 vs. April's revised 87.1”
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
Greece will leave the euro zone on June 18 if the populist government wins the country's elections on the 17...Nick Dewhirst, director at wealth management firm Integral Asset Management, told CNBC.com Monday... "The basic question is that a German has to increase working from 65 to 67...to pay for Greeks retiring at 50. The 17th of June is the perfect opportunity (for the Greeks) to say either 'we'll behave' or 'we'll carry on cheating,'" he said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47587509
RANDOM NEWS FROM BLOOMBERG (all marginally worse)
“The Dallas Fed general business activity index in April turned negative after three months of positive readings, falling from 10.8 to minus 3.4. But the overall report was mixed, but mostly turning less positive or mildly negative.”
“The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in April slipped three tenths to a no better than soft 69.2.... This decline is in direct contrast to the consumer sentiment index which, in data released on Friday by Reuters/University of Michigan, broke out to new recovery highs.”
“State Street Investor Confidence Index (The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence by looking at actual levels of risk in investment portfolios. This is not an attitude survey.)... Demand for safety by institutional investors rose again this month reflected in the investor confidence index which fell deeper below 100 to 86.4 vs. April's revised 87.1”
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
HOUSING
NPR reported housing
improvements in pricing in a number of Cities and said that housing
construction contributed 0.4% to GDP. So
far, I am unconvinced that housing is great news. Housing has a long way to go before it can
seriously lift the market.
MARKET
The S&P 500 rose 1.1% Tuesday
to 1332. VIX fell 3% to 21.03. I’ve been calling for a bounce for a while
and today we got a little push up. I
think the S&P 500 can get back to about 1350-1360 or so, before we fail to
go higher. Then I expect the S&P 500
will fall back to the 1295 area. Whether
it goes lower or bounces from there may depend on Europe. The market seems to be waiting.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis switched
to HOLD today after more than 2-weeks of sell ratings. That’s not too important since this system is
designed to identify tops and bottoms and I would need to see a buy rating to
change my strategy.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I reduced my stock
holdings to 30% (0% in stock in the 401k) at S&P 1358 after the SELL signal
on 9 May 2012. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the
right side of this page). I cut my stock
position to 15% on 17 May in order to maintain a 10% gain in a
trading/longer-term position I had in the QQQ.
