MARKET
The S&P 500 was DOWN 0.57%
Tuesday to 1331. VIX only rose 1/2% to 21.97. The S&P 500 is currently 4% above its
200-day moving average.
EUROPE RECESSION NEWS
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) – “Stronger-than-expected
growth in Germany was enough to help the European Union and the 17-nation Eurozone
avoid falling into recession…during the first three months of this year...Julian Callow, economist with
Barclays Capital, said…they only barely avoided a downturn in this initial
reading, adding that second-quarter readings show signs of further slowing.”
The Germany I-shares ETF (EWG) dropped 1.7% so
the good news in Germany wasn’t good enough.
GREECE NEWS
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The threat of contagion
in Europe deepened Tuesday, when Greece announced it would hold new elections
in June after failing to form a coalition government... "Until a
government is in place, Greece cannot uphold its obligations under the
agreements signed...in March," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High
Frequency Economics. "This sets the nation on a course toward an imminent
hard default and a government shutdown, unless something happens to change the
sequence of events."
Volume has only picked up
slightly since this correction started.
The lower lows are getting very close together. It’s possible this will be over soon. Perhaps the S&P 500 will get to the 200-dMA
or maybe not. With all the issues out
there I will be surprised to see this end quickly, but stranger things have
happened. It is also possible selling will pick up. It’s guesswork at this point, but we can look
at the new-lows and see if the market internals look better as we go down. So far…not so much. No buy signal yet.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remained
to SELL Tuesday.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I reduced my stock holdings to 30% in the long-term portfolio (0%
in stock in the 401k) at S&P 1358 after the SELL signal on 9 May
2012. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right
side of this page).
With 30% remaining in stocks, I will make some money if the sell signal is wrong. Conversely, even if the market loses half its value, I would only be down 15% of the portfolio.
