Bill Dudley, president of
the New York Fed on CNBC this morning:
“If you look at the last
four quarters, we've grown 2.1% for real G.D.P. If you look at the Blue Chip
forecast for next four quarters, 2.4%. Our forecast is pretty similar to that
--- just a very gradual acceleration in the growth outlook, which is, really, frankly,
pretty disappointing.”
Regarding the recent bad
employment numbers, he said…”January, February, March were the warmest three
months together in the history of the United States going back to 19th century…So
that's why we really do need to see several more months. I think that if you
look at the trend over a little longer time period, like, look at six months,
the moving average of payroll employment, what you do see is things actually
have accelerated a bit, which is a good thing….I'm a little bit more confident
that the economy's going to keep growing. I'm a little bit less worried about,
a Japanese-style “deflation outcome.”’ Full
transcript from CNBC at:
MARKET
The S&P 500 was UP
slightly (0.1%) Thursday to 1321 (rounded off).
VIX fell 3.5% to 21.54. I keep suggesting that the
market is overdue for a bounce. So far it hasn’t been much of a bounce.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis is SELL
again Thursday. As of the close today, indicators
in each category of Sentiment, Price, Volume, and VIX are negative.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I reduced my stock
holdings to 30% (0% in stock in the 401k) at S&P 1358 after the SELL signal
on 9 May 2012. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the
right side of this page). I cut my stock
position to 15% on 17 May in order to maintain a 10% gain in a
trading/longer-term position I had in the QQQ.
