“Scott Wapner, CNBC anchor, asked, "You say, 'prepare for at least two declines of 25-30 percent, maybe even 50 percent, in the coming decade.' For a buy-and-hold guy, that's a little concerning, don't you think?" Bogle replied: “Not at all. They come and go. The market goes up, and the market goes down. It's never failed to recover from one of those 50 percent declines.” Jack Bogle is the former head of Vanguard Mutual Funds and a well-known, buy-and-hold investor. Full story at... http://www.businessinsider.com/jack-bogle-warns-of-two-50-percent-market-declines-in-next-10-years-2013-4#ixzz2PJEeNdWD
Here’s a Bullish point of
view...
S&P RALLY HAS ANOTHER 100
POINTS TO GO (Daryl Guppy - CNBC)
“The market has developed a small
consolidation near 1,550. This is a very strong bullish feature. This
consolidation may be followed by a rapid breakout above this resistance level
and 1,550. This rally breakout would confirm a very strong uptrend. The upside
target for this type of breakout is near 1,690. This target is calculated by
projecting the width of the trading bands above 1,550... There is a high
probability this uptrend will continue to 1,690.” Full story at...http://www.cnbc.com/id/100607744
CORRECTION TIMING (WSJ.com)
“The S&P 500 has gone 91 trading days without a pullback
of at least 5%, a streak that dates back to President Barack Obama’s reelection
in mid-November. It is the second-longest stretch during the current four-year
bull market without such a decline, according to Stone & McCarthy Research
Associates. The current run has prompted
two schools of thought: One says the market is long overdue for at least a
temporary pullback. The other says this rally is relatively in-line with
previous trends.” Full story at... http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/04/02/morning-marketbeat-correction-timing-triggers-debate/?mod=yahoo_hs
The market will either correct or not? Now there’s a risky forecast – half right, no
matter what. Back in 2006 and 2007
(before the decline) 90-days was about the time between small corrections and
it occurred like clockwork.
Further details on why I think the market is topping -
here’s another one:
BREADTH
I measure breadth as percent of stocks advancing. The 10-day moving average (10-dMA) of breadth
continues to diverge from the S&P 500 and that is not a good sign for the
markets. Usually, when the 10-dMA drops
below 50% advancing, the markets will decline…how far, remains to be seen. (Longer term measures of breadth are also declining.)
Today was unusual as far as breadth is concerned. When the markets are going up, one would
expect to see breadth for the day greater than 50%. Today, declining stocks outpaced advancers according
to Briefing.com.
CALLING THE TOP – ONLY AN IDIOT WOULD DO THAT!
There is no point in raising my guess on the top (start of
the correction). The primary reason for
my belief that the S&P would retreat was that the S&P 500 was 9.9 percent
above the 200-day Moving average. That
value was reached on 14 March. The
market stalled long enough to raise the 200-dMA. Now it will have to reach 1580 before it is
10% above the 200-dMA and 1650 to be 15% above the 200-dMA.
Of course, I wouldn’t be missing some gains if I had
followed the NTSM analysis – it still hasn’t signaled a sell. In the end though – every investor must be
able to sleep at night and I was simply getting uncomfortable with advancing
markets and conflicting signs.
MARKET RECAP
Tuesday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.5% to 1570 (rounded).
Tuesday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.5% to 1570 (rounded).
VIX fell 6% to 12.78.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close. The numerical analysis has not yet confirmed
my “off-the-grid” top-call.
Sentiment is a sell; Price is a buy; and Volume and VIX are neutral…broken
record.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500-1525),
due to my risk tolerance rather than the numerical NTSM analysis. To put it bluntly, I currently have no
tolerance for risk. (If I were strictly
following the NTSM numbers, I'd still be heavily invested in stocks.) My
reasoning may be found at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
