“The government’s
official scorecard for the U.S. economy in the first quarter pointed to the
weakest growth in three years, but the slowdown appeared tied to temporary
effects that are likely to give way a rebound in the coming months. Gross
domestic product increased at a meager 0.7% annual pace in the first three
months of the year…” Story at…
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest report for Chicago PMI came in at 58.3, a 0.6
point increase from last month's 57.7. Investing.com forecast 56.4… “The April Chicago
report showcased another impressive month, with firms reporting solid growth.
Rising demand and firm production led to a pick-up in hiring by firms. Although
the employment indicator has been bumpy, in and out of contraction, if the
current month’s rise is sustained, it could provide a boost to the labor
market,” said Shaily Mittal, senior economist at MNI Indicators.” Analysis at…
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Bloomberg)
“Household sentiment was little changed in April from the
previous month, holding at an elevated level on optimism about personal
finances, University of Michigan survey data showed.” Story at…
A-D LINES ARE BULLISH (McClellan Financial Publications)
“Just recently, the overall NYSE A-D Line moved to a new all-time
high, saying that liquidity is plentiful and it should lift the overall stock
market. The same message comes from this High Yield Bond A-D Line, which has
also pushed ahead to a new all-time high. The message is that liquidity is so
plentiful that even junk bonds can go higher. And history shows that such
plentiful liquidity is also beneficial for the overall stock market.” - Tom
McClellan. Commentary at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was down about 0.2% to 2384.
-VIX rose about 4% to 10.82 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.282%.
Not much changed today. Mostly bullish signs continue:
-My Sum of 16-Indicators was at +8 today vs. +6 yesterday.
Longer term the indicators continue to improve. Market Internals look good and
new-high/new-low data remains bullish.
-Money Trend is still moving sharply up; that’s bullish
too.
-Bollinger Bands (2-std deviations above and below the
S&P 500 Index) were not overbought today as the upper-band has moved up.
The Late-day action (Smart Money) was up today and is moving
up over the last month. That’s mildly bullish. Sentiment remains high, but it
is creeping down hinting that this rally may continue. (My Sentiment value in
the long-term NTSM indicator remains bearish, but that is because there is a
rule that extends a negative indication for about a week. Sentiment, by itself,
is not a good timing indicator anyway.)
One brown shoot…
The Overbought/Oversold Index remains “overbought” today.
It is based on the number of stocks advancing over the last 10-days.
I remain bullish short-term and cautiously bullish longer
term.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
No1 is Technology (XLK).
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
No positions.
I was shellacked in recent trades so no short-term
trading for a while. Long is the call
now though, as it has been since the Index closed above the 50-dMA.
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
are positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Friday, Sentiment was negative; Price was positive;
Volume & VIX indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24
March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation.
