"A big drop in new contracts for passenger jets caused
orders for U.S. durable goods to fall in July for the third time in four
months. But most manufacturers, aside from Boeing, reported good results and
business investment strengthened.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 2875.
-VIX slipped about 3% to 11.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.816% as of
this post.
Sentiment has dropped a lot in the past several days and
Sentiment is no longer issuing a sell signal (not that we’d act on one signal
anyway). With sentiment (%-bulls in select Rydex funds) falling, it should allow
the index to run higher. %-bulls was 86% as of yesterday’s numbers based on the amount of
money invested in Guggenheim/Rydex long/short funds, down from the recent peak
of 92% just 4-days ago.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved
slightly from +5 to +6 (a positive number is bullish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -7 to +6 indicating
that conditions are much better than 2-weeks ago.
Bollinger bands are close to a sell signal, but RSI is
still firmly neutral. I work these two
signals together so they are currently neutral.
Money Trend is bullish as are a number of other
indicators. So far, we see no signs of selling that would suggest August or September
is going to be a down month.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals improved
to POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Friday, the Price and VIX indicators were positive; Volume &
Sentiment were neutral. Overall this is still a NEUTRAL indication.
.
