“U.S. job openings held near record highs in June amid a
modest decline in hiring, pointing to further tightening labor market
conditions, which economists hope will soon spur faster wage growth…The monthly
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released by the Labor
Department on Tuesday underscored labor market strength, which together with
robust economic growth, likely paves the way for the Federal Reserve to raise
interest rates in September.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 2858.
-VIX dropped about 3% to 10.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down to 2.972% as
of this writing.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped from +3
to +1 while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations
improved from +1 to +7. Indicators have shown a marked bullish improvement in
the last week or so.
VIX continues trending down, a bullish indicator until it
drops to extreme low levels. The cyclical industrial stocks (XLI-ETF) are
outperforming the S&P 500 and that’s bullish. (If investors were worried
they’d sell cyclicals.)
SOME BEAR SIGNS:
Statistical analysis of the daily moves indicates a
breakout (usually to the downside) is coming in the next several weeks. This
used to be a reliable indicator, but it has been wrong the last several
times. We need to see more evidence.
Money Trend has slipped and is now headed down. Smart
Money (late-day action) is now headed down. New/high-new/low data is mixed. New-highs
are slipping.
The Bollinger Band indicator remains nearly oversold, but
RSI is still not confirming the signal, so this one is neutral.
All in all, not too many bear signs. I remain fully
invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained to POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
On 10 May 2018 I
added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more
evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are
late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after
the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Tuesday, the Price indicator was positive; Volume, VIX &
Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
