JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)
“Initial jobless claims, a tracker of sorts for layoffs
in the U.S., fell by 6,000 to 213,000 in the week ended Aug. 4.” Story at…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-decline-for-first-time-in-three-weeks-2018-08-09
PPI (Reuters)
“U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July for the
first time in seven months as a modest increase in the cost of goods was offset
by a drop in services, but underlying producer inflation continued to push
higher.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2854.
-VIX was up about 4% to 11.27.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.925% as
of this post.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators dropped from -3
to -5 while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations
fell from zero to -8.
While indicators are falling, we still haven’t seen the
topping indicators signal a top. They
aren’t perfect, but for now we'll need more evidence.
Longer term, we always have to worry that we could be
near a major top. The chart shows a top back in January and we need to move significantly
above the old high before we can conclude this isn’t the start of a Bear
market. The good news is that longer
term indicators are not acting up so we don’t have any evidence of a major top
at this point - we just have that lingering concern that it might be. Let’s not
worry until we see the indicators give a sell signal and we have some evidence
that the top is in.
As noted previously, all in all, we have some short-term,
bear signs, but not too many; however, a really big up-day (>1%) might
indicate a short-term top since the Index is near its upper trend-line. A drop to the lower trend line may be due. This is
probably the most likely scenario. I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
declined to NEGATIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
18 Apr 2018 I
increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For
me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless
I am in full defense mode.
On 10 May 2018 I
added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more
evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are
late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after
the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.
