“…we heard numerous questions about the length of the
bull market, and the economic cycle, implying they are “long of tooth.” We do
not think so since secular bull markets tend to last 14+ years.” - Jeffrey Saut.
Commentary at…
INTEL (Yahoo.com)
“On Intel's second-quarter earnings call, interim CEO
Robert Swan said the following: "Our biggest challenge in the second half
[of 2018] will be meeting additional demand, and we are working intently with
our customers and our factories to be prepared so we are not constraining our
customers' growth."
"We feel very good about having the supply in place
for that fairly significant demand increase," Swan said in reference to
the company's revenue guidance of $69.5 billion.” Story at…
My cmt: Strong demand usually bodes well for a stock.
While Intel (INTC) is no longer a momentum play, I think it is still a value
play that is worth owning at this price; but the Pros say no. Goldman Sachs
says sell…
GOLDMAN ISSUES SELL ON INTEL (MarketWatch)
“Shares of Intel Corp. sank Friday, after Goldman Sachs
slapped a “sell” recommendation on the semiconductor giant, citing greater
competitive risk and skepticism over its ability to sustain margins and
earnings growth.
Analyst Toshiya Hari cut his rating to sell, after
maintaining a neutral rating since February 2016. Hari slashed the 12-month
stock price target to $44, which is nearly 11% below current levels, from $53. The
downgrade comes two weeks after Intel reported second-quarter
results, which caused the stock to tumbled 8.6% on
July 27.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was down about 0.4% to 2822.
-VIX was up about 12% to 14.78.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.880% as of
this post.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators remained -7
while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations fell from
-14 to -24. (For a more detailed look at the indicators look at Friday’s blog
post.)
Numbers are still negative. The most likely scenario
remains a decline in the 3-5% range (from the top). If it happens, that would
drop the Index to about 2775. It could of course get much worse. The uncertainty
in Italy may continue. We can look at technicals, but we can’t predict the
future.
A 50% position in stocks is my fully invested position. I
have been around 60% since May when it became apparent that the correction was
over. Today, I dropped back to 50% in stocks since there is more uncertainty
now.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
NEGATIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree this is a position with which I
am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Monday, the Price indicator was positive; Volume, VIX &
Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
