CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“Crude oil prices suffered additional pressure today
after the Energy Information Administration reported a build in crude oil
inventories for the week to April 19. The authority said inventories had risen
by 5.5 million
barrels…” Story at…
ATA TONNAGE FALLS (ATA)
“American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally
adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index was down 2.3% in March after
decreasing 1.5% in February…“In March, and really the first quarter in total,
tonnage was negatively impacted by bad winter storms throughout much of the
U.S.,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello…Compared
with March 2018, the SA index increased 1.6%...” Press release at…
RUNNING ON EMPTY (Real Investment Advice)
“Yes, since investors did sell the December lows, they are
now buying the February-March highs. But…investors are still heavily weighted
towards equity.” More importantly, they are getting long at a time
where volatility has once again become extremely low which has historically led
to negative outcomes…As I stated often, my job is to participate in the markets
while keeping a measured approach to capital preservation. Since it is considered “bearish” to
point out the potential “risks” that could lead to rapid capital
destruction; then I am unabashedly a “bear.” But I have been through
three previous bear markets and lived to tell about. However, just to be very
clear, I am still in “theater;” I am just moving much closer to
the “exit.” – Lance Roberts.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.2% to 2927. (The
Index failed to hold above the prior all-time high of 2931.)
-VIX jumped about 7% to 13.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.519%.
There were a lot of improved indicators today. Any indicator based on a 10-day moving average
made a big jump because the 9 April data (11-days ago) was really bad. Today
was weak, but trading out today's weak data for really bad data will show an
improvement in the 10-day averages; however, if the improvement continues, I’ll be buying back in rather than
sitting on my hands.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +1 to +7 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from -18 to -8. Most of these
indicators are short-term.
I am bullish now, longer term, but I am still looking for
a better entry point in the near term. I expect the market direction to be down
(overall) for a bit, but Mr. Market has not agreed with me.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10
Today’s Reading: 0
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 17
April (RSI was negative.)
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
NOTE: Topping
indicators are good at identifying a blow-off top with buyers in a frenzy. These indicators are not so good at
identifying a slow, rollover-top that can happen when buyers simply go on
strike.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
improved to POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks as of 9 January 2019. I sold the rally about half way up expecting a
retest of the lows Dec 2018.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, PRICE was positive; the VIX, VOLUME, and
SENTIMENT indicators were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication. This
indicator was negative yesterday based on the fact that we saw a bearish 16 up-days
out of 20 on the S&P 500.
