RETAIL SALES (Reuters)
“U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in February, the
latest sign economic growth has shifted into low gear as stimulus from $1.5
trillion in tax cuts and increased government spending fades.” Story at…
ISM MANUFACTURING (MarketWatch)
“American manufacturing recovered a bit in March after
hitting a two-year low in the prior month. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose
to 55.3% last month from 54.2% in February.” Story at…
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Reuters)
“U.S. construction spending increased for a third
straight month in February, boosted by gains in both private and public
construction projects, offering some good news on the economy following a
string of weak reports. The Commerce Department said on Monday construction
spending rose 1.0 percent to a nine-month high after an upwardly revised 2.5
percent surge in January.” Story at…
YIELD CURVE SUGGESTS MARKET HAS PEAKED? (MarketWatch)
“Slowing economic growth and an inverted yield curve has
many investors worried about a potential recession in the next year or two, but
also has them excited for the heady
stock-market returns that have often been sandwiched between an
inverted yield curve and the subsequent economic downturn. But some analysts
and economists are warning that statistical averages can be misleading, and
that there is reason to believe that the latest yield curve inversion signals
returns for the rest of year will be tepid at best and that the stock-market
top may already be in.” Story at…
SCHUMER / PELOSI ANNOUNCEMENT (USAToday)
“Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader and Nancy Pelosi,
Speaker of the House, announced that they were gratified and delighted and,
more importantly, looking forward to working with President Trump now that Mueller’s
report clears Trump of conspiring with the Russians during the 2016
Presidential election. “This is a great day for the country to put this concern
behind us,” said Schumer.” – Story at...
http://www.usa-yesterday.com.april fools
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 2867.
-VIX dropped about 2% to 13.4.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.5%.
The futures moved up last night when the China PMI data
came in higher than expected. That gave us a bullish lean today.
We had a Golden Cross Monday when the 50-dMA crossed
above the 200-dMA. That’s the natural order; the 50-day should be higher than
the 200-day if all is right with the world. I’m not sure that this means a
lot. The rally has lost steam, but not enough
to call a top or a reversal of the rally.
It looked like we were headed down about 3-weeks ago, but internals have
improved significantly since then.
Bollinger Bands nearly gave a sell signal today, but RSI did
not so there aren’t many bear signs, at least not those indicators that are
specifically designed to call tops.
I’ve added a Top/Bottom indicator that I’ll report regularly.
It issues a number from -10 to +10, Bearish to Bullish respectively.
There are hardly any bear signs today. Here are the only ones I could find.
Bear signs:
-Bollinger Bands are nearly
overbought, but not there yet.
-MACD is headed down but it looks like it is ready to
make a bullish crossover.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -4 to +4 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from +10 to +11. Most of
these indicators are short-term.
There aren’t many bear signs. Perhaps I’ll get back in if the Short-term internals
turn positive.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
Today’s Reading: Zero (Solidly Neutral.)
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: 21 March
2019 value = -1
(This is a sum of significant top/bottom indicators. It is not sensitive to short term swings and
will miss many top and bottoms depending on the nature of the data. For
example, during the 2018, 20% correction, the reading at the S&P 500 Top on
20 Sept 2018 was -1. The Bottom on 24 December 2018 was +7.
At the top of the 10% correction on 26 Jan 2018, the
reading was -4. At the Bottom of that correction on 8 Feb 2018, the reading was
+1.)
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks as of 9 January 2019.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Monday, the PRICE
indicator was positive. The VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral.
Overall this remains in a NEUTRAL indication.
