DURABLE ORDERS (MarketWatch)
“Orders for durable, or long-lasting, goods fell in
February for the first time in four months and business investment continued to
soften, reflecting a slower U.S. economy early in the new year. Durable-goods orders sank 1.6%, largely because of fewer
bookings for commercial aircraft and defense-related hardware…” Story at…
AUTO SALES (WashingtonPost)
“Automobile sales in the U.S. fell 2% in the first
quarter, another sign the nation’s economy is starting to slow.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 2867.
-VIX dipped about 0.3% to 13.36.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.472%.
“Trading what I see,” is doing nothing. That’s because
both the long-term indicator and the market-internals indicator (short-term)
were neutral. If we were in a good bullish situation, the long-term indicator
would be positive/bullish.
On the other hand, there are hardly any bear signs:
-The overbought/oversold ratio is oversold. This is an old school indicator that is
usually early so I don’t pay much attention to this one.
-Bollinger Bands are nearly
overbought, but not there yet.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +4 to +8 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations slipped from +11 to +10. Most of
these indicators are short-term.
There aren’t many bear signs. I’ve said, “I remain in the
Bear camp,” but I am actually in the confused camp. I’d like to see Long-term
and Short-term internals turn positive so I can increase my percentage invested
in stocks.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
Today’s Reading: Zero (Solidly Neutral.)
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: 21 March
2019 value = -1
(This is a sum of significant top/bottom indicators. It is not sensitive to short term swings and
will miss many top and bottoms depending on the nature of the data. For
example, during the 2018, 20% correction, the reading at the S&P 500 Top on
20 Sept 2018 was -1. The Bottom on 24 December 2018 was +7.
At the top of the 10% correction on 26 Jan 2018, the
reading was -4. At the Bottom of that correction on 8 Feb 2018, the reading was
+1.)
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
DowDupont spun off DuPont and is now Dow Chemical and
will remain in the Dow Industrial Index trading symbol, DOW.
“Dow’s separation has been in the works since Dow
Chemical Co. and DuPont Co. agreed to merge, temporarily creating the world’s
largest chemical company. The plan from the start was to redivide into three
new companies focusing on commodities, agriculture and specialty products.”
Story at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks as of 9 January 2019.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday, the PRICE indicator
was positive. The VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral. Overall
this remains in a NEUTRAL indication.
