INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MarketWatch)
“Industrial production fell 0.1% in March, the
Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. The gain was below Wall
Street expectations of a 0.1% gain. This is the fourth straight weak reading
for industrial production. Production rose 0.1% in February after a 0.3%
decline in January.” Story at…
My cmt: Year over year, industrial production was up
2.8%.
AVI GILBERT COMMENTARY EXCERPT (Marketwatch)
“At the bottoming near 2,250-2,335 many months ago, I
warned that this rally will have to take us high enough that most of the market
will be certain that the correction is over and that we are on our way to
3,500-plus…I think the market has done exactly what it needed to do to shake
out any further bearish expectations. And the market will soon tell us if that
still needs to push us up toward the 3,011-3,040 region or not. But based on
the larger-degree structures, as well as all the other reasons I have
highlighted so many times before, I still think we will see a larger decline
later this year, especially after most have given up on any bearish potential.”
- Avi Gilburt, Elliott Wave technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net. Commentary at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 1pt to 2907.
-VIX slipped about 1% to 12.18.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.590%.
Volume was about even with the monthly average. This breaks a trend of low-volume that we had seen recently.
The overbought/oversold ratio is again overbought. RSI jumped
to an overbought level of 86. Bollinger
Bands are very close to being over bought.
If Bollinger Bands go negative along with RSI, we will see a better
buying opportunity. We’re not there yet.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from -3 to -4 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from +40 to +28. Most of
these indicators are short-term.
I am bullish now, but still looking for a better entry
point. I expect a few more down days at this point. Mr. Market has not been agreeing
with me. We’ll see.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10
Today’s Reading: -1
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 16
April (RSI was negative.)
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks as of 9 January 2019.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday, the VIX, VOLUME, PRICE and SENTIMENT indicators
were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
