“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (Advisor Perspectives)
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell eight points to -9.1.” Charts and analysis at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/2022/10/17/empire-state-mfg-survey-activity-declined-in-october
NO BULLISH MESSAGE YET FROM BOND CEF A-D LINE (McClellan
Financial Publications)
“As stock prices were rebounding strongly on Oct. 13 from an initial bad reaction to CPI data, there was no confirmation of that price strength from the bond-related closed end funds (CEFs) which trade on the NYSE... During the bear market of 2022, the Bond CEF A-D Line has continued to point the way lower for the stock market.”
Charts & commentary at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/no_bullish_message_yet_from_bond_cef_a-d_line/
My cmt: This is not my view. Let’s hope this indicator flips positive soon.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 2.7% to 3678.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 31.37. (That’s not much drop givven the big move up in the S&P500. The VIX crowd is skeptical.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.013%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 23.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 198-days.
The S&P 500 is 11.5% Below its 200-dMA & 6.3% Below its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was/is in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
SPY – S&P 500 (I may hold this as a long-term position.)
IWM - Russell 2000. (I may hold this as a long-term position.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There were some more bullish signs:
-Monday was a 90% up-volume day although the close wasn’t high enough to give a strong, bull sign. I’ll look for tomorrow to see if up-volume will be greater than 80%. Back-to-back high up-volume days is a very bullish sign. BTW, that signal already occurred once, on 3 and 4 October. The Index drifted down after that signal – more back-to-back bull signs would likely signal a more durable bullish move this time.
-Junk Bond to S&P 500 spreads are positive and getting more positive.
-The smoothed version of the Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure is flat and appears to be turning up. This has happened on previous rallies, but this time, the turn is occurring at a much higher level than was true at the June lows on the S&P 500. That is a bullish divergence I have mentioned previously.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators remained +6 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +46 to +56. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator remained to HOLD: VIX is bearish; PRICE & SENTIMENT are
bullish; VOLUME is neutral.
Bottom line: I’m a Bull: I’m now invested with about 70%
of the portfolio invested in stocks. I added a leveraged long position (DDM –
2xDow) 13 Oct based on strong bullish signs. (As a retiree, 50% invested in
stocks is my “normal” portfolio.)
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
#1. XLE #2. IBB #3. XLV
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
#1. AMGN #2. CVX #3. MRK
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious
bear signs.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Business activity declined modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell eight points to -9.1.” Charts and analysis at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/2022/10/17/empire-state-mfg-survey-activity-declined-in-october
“As stock prices were rebounding strongly on Oct. 13 from an initial bad reaction to CPI data, there was no confirmation of that price strength from the bond-related closed end funds (CEFs) which trade on the NYSE... During the bear market of 2022, the Bond CEF A-D Line has continued to point the way lower for the stock market.”
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/no_bullish_message_yet_from_bond_cef_a-d_line/
My cmt: This is not my view. Let’s hope this indicator flips positive soon.
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 2.7% to 3678.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 31.37. (That’s not much drop givven the big move up in the S&P500. The VIX crowd is skeptical.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.013%.
-Drop from Top: 23.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 198-days.
The S&P 500 is 11.5% Below its 200-dMA & 6.3% Below its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was/is in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
SPY – S&P 500 (I may hold this as a long-term position.)
IWM - Russell 2000. (I may hold this as a long-term position.)
There were some more bullish signs:
-Monday was a 90% up-volume day although the close wasn’t high enough to give a strong, bull sign. I’ll look for tomorrow to see if up-volume will be greater than 80%. Back-to-back high up-volume days is a very bullish sign. BTW, that signal already occurred once, on 3 and 4 October. The Index drifted down after that signal – more back-to-back bull signs would likely signal a more durable bullish move this time.
-Junk Bond to S&P 500 spreads are positive and getting more positive.
-The smoothed version of the Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure is flat and appears to be turning up. This has happened on previous rallies, but this time, the turn is occurring at a much higher level than was true at the June lows on the S&P 500. That is a bullish divergence I have mentioned previously.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
#1. XLE #2. IBB #3. XLV
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
#1. AMGN #2. CVX #3. MRK
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
