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“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.
 
NEW HOME SALES (YahooFinance)
“The volume of sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000, down 10.9% from the previous month’s revised pace of 677,000 and 17.6% below year ago levels...” Story at...
https://money.yahoo.com/new-home-sales-140626719.html
 
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 439.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
CONFOUNDING THE MASSES - COMMENTARY EXCERPT (Heritage Capital)
“Let’s turn to the NASDAQ and the number of stocks making new 52 week lows. On the right side of the chart I drew a blue line to show that each successive lower low in price has been accompanied by less stocks making new lows. That indicates a loss of downside momentum and a positive divergence or non-confirmation. This kind of behavior is almost always seen at market bottoms.

Remember, the markets will bottom (and they may have already) long before the Fed stops raising rates and even pivots.” – Paul Schatz, President heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/confounding-the-masses/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.7% to 3831.
-VIX bucked the trend and dipped about 4% to 27.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.007%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 20.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 205-days.
The S&P 500 is 7.1% Below its 200-dMA & 0.7% Below its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was / is in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
In theory, the S&P 500 was rejected at its 50-dMA and fell from there giving a bearish signal. Sorry, I don’t buy that analysis.  Market Internals looked very good today and VIX was down; I expect that the major indeces will follow higher, either tomorrow or very soon thereafter. Futures are up as I write this, so others are agreeing with me.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators sllipped from +17 to +16 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +73 to +92. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: VIX is neutral; SENTIMENT, PRICE & VOLUME are bullish. 
 
Bottom line: I’m a Bull: I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
#1. XLE  #2. ITA #2. IBB (ITA & IBB Tied)

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
#1. CVX  #2. MRK #3. AMGN

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKETY INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.