Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ... GDP ... Jobless Claims ... Durable Orders

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.

Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
GDP (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy posted its first period of positive growth for 2022 in the third quarter, at least temporarily easing recession fears, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.
GDP, a sum of all the goods and services produced from July through September, increased at a 2.6% annualized pace for the period...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/us-gdp-accelerated-at-2point6percent-pace-in-q3-better-than-expected-as-growth-turns-positive.html
Just a reminder...
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently measured, does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP does not distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP also does not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by going into debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar spent on education or new means of production, is counted the same as every dollar spent on epic bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance grew by less than expected last week, according to data from the Labor Department. Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims during the period totaled 217,000, up from the unrevised prior level of 214,000.” Story at... 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-rise-217-094610080.html
 
DURABLE ORDERS (MarketWatch)
“New orders for durable goods-products meant to last at least three years-rose by 0.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted $274.7 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday.” Story at...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jump-in-aircraft-orders-drive-increase-in-durable-goods-demand-271666874923?mod=newsviewer_click
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.6% to 3807.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 27.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.935%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 20.6% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 206-days.
The S&P 500 is 7.5% Below its 200-dMA & 1.1% Below its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was / is in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Junk Bonds (JNK-ETF) continue to march higher; advancers outpaced decliners; up-volume was higher than down-volume; new-highs and new-lows are improving; “What’s not to like?” Ans: Forward guidance. Companies are giving weak guidance during their earnings calls causing doubt for future earnings. For example, “Amazon shares plummeted 13% in extended trading on Thursday after the company issued a disappointing fourth-quarter forecast and missed on revenue estimates.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/amazon-amzn-earnings-q3-2022.html
 
Today was an odd day. When I see advancing issues beating declining issues and the S&P 500 is down, I conclude that small caps were out-performing large caps. That was the case today, but the DJI (Dow30) was up on the day. It is unusual to see the Dow up and the S&P 500 down. I don’t know that we can infer any market moves from today’s action. Still, when most issues are going up (advancers outpace decliners) the S&P 500 usually catches up.  It may be the high flyers in the Nasdaq are the last group of stocks to be taken to the woodshed in this downturn.  I still think the bottom is in. We’ll see...
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +16 to +15 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +92 to +101. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: VIX is neutral; SENTIMENT, PRICE & VOLUME are bullish. 
 
Bottom line: I’m a Bull: I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
#1. XLE  #2. IBB #2. ITA

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
#1.CVX  #2.AMGN  #3.MRK

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKETY INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.