Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ... Jobless Claims

 “Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.
 
“There’s a lot going on, and I think the one thing this [Hurricane Ian] has finally ended is a discussion about whether or not there’s climate change...” - President Biden.
 
No, Mr. President, regarding hurricanes, it has not.
“In terms of frequency, studies have consistently shown “no discernible trend in the global number of tropical cyclones.” – Yale Climate Connections. Regarding intensity...
 
THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT SAYS HURRICANE INTENSITY HASN’T EXCEEDED NORMAL VARIABILITY (NCA, CSSR)
The National Climate Assessment issued in 2017 as the Climate Science Special Report states “...the globally observed changes...would not necessarily support a detectable trend in tropical storm intensity...the trend signal has not yet had time to rise above the background variability of natural processes.” - CSSR
My cmt: Global Warming is real: the earth has warmed 1 degree C in the last 100 years. It is sad that the propaganda continues in an attempt to convince the public that every time there is a weather event, it is due to Global Warming. Weather is not climate. Climate occurs over a 30-year time-frame.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (FA Financiala Advisor)
“Applications for US unemployment insurance rose by more than forecast last week, though remained at a historically low level. Initial unemployment claims increased by 29,000 to 219,000 in the week ended Oct. 1, Labor Department data showed Thursday... The impact of Hurricane Ian, which struck Florida and South Carolina last week, may be reflected in coming weeks’ data.” Story at...
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/jobless-claims-rise-by-more-than-forecast-to-219-000-70012.html
 
WHY THE BEAR MARKET MAY ONLY BE HALFWAY THROUGH (Felder Report)
“...history suggests that the rapid rises in the dollar, interest rates and oil prices over the past couple of years represent a uniquely bearish trifecta that will likely have a very negative effect on earnings over the next year or so.” Commentary at...
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/10/05/why-the-bear-market-in-stocks-may-only-be-halfway-through/
My cmt: I hope he is wrong!
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 slipped about 1% to 3745.
-VIX rose about 7% to 30.52.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.824%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 21.9% as of today. 25.2% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 191-days.
The S&P 500 is 10.7% Below its 200-dMA & 6.2% Below its 50-dMA.
Support is around 3585, the low of 5 October 2020.
 
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we may have seen the bottom, or at least near the bottom.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
SPY – S&P 500 (I may hold this as a long-term position.)
IWM - Russell 2000.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Here’s another chart that supports the thesis the the bottom (or nearly bottom) is in. There is a significant divergence between Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure and the S&P 500. Buying minus Selling Pressure was much higher (more Buying / less selling) at the recent low than was present at the June lows.

 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +7 to +6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -46 to -28. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained to HOLD: VIX is bearish; SENTIMENT and PRICE are bullish; VOLUME is neutral. 
 
Bottom line: I’m a Bull; I’m now invested with about 65% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back to 50% if I see bearish indicators sharply warning. I’ll add leveraged long positions (QLD, UWM) if we see a pullback to the prior lows. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.)
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
 #1. XLE  #2. IBB  #3. XLV

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My momentum chart for the Dow is messy. DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
#1. UNH  #2. CVX  #3. WMT
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals, but remained HOLD.
 
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.