“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
My cmt: Man, you just can’t make this stuff up. It’s easy to get research funding for anything if you just claim racism.
Early in my career, I was a Professional Engineer specializing in structural design. The above picture appears to show a potential problem in column design in Turkey and also with the concrete masonry blocks. In earthquake prone areas of the U.S., vertical steel reinforcing for columns is wrapped with spiral steel reinforcing. Spiral reinforcing retains the concrete so even if the concrete in a column is crushed, the spiral reinforcing helps keep the broken concrete in place. The building may have to be condemned, but it is less likely to collapse. I also note that there doesn’t appear to be any reinforcing in the masonry. In the U.S., vertical and horizontal cells in the concrete masonry blocks must be reinforced with steel and filled with mortar at regular intervals.
My cmt: Intergalactic space invaders arrived by balloon?
“The other day I wrote that a mild or modest pullback should not shock anyone and should be used as a buying opportunity. Nothing has changed to make me think otherwise...One of the premises of my bullish forecast is that the 2-Year does not go to new highs above 4.75%. My view remains that the Fed and the market are now at equilibrium as the 2-Year has fallen below the Fed Funds Rate. I expect the former to go sideways to lower while the latter should go higher and then sideways.” Paul Schatz, President heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/rough-few-days-for-stocks-as-yields-rise/
“...the problem with the bullish forecast is the rise in asset prices eases financial conditions, which reduces the Fed’s ability to bring down inflation. Such would also presumably mean employment remains strong along with wage growth, elevating inflationary pressures. While the bullish scenario is possible, that outcome faces many challenges in 2023, given the market already trades at fairly lofty valuations. Even in a “soft landing” environment, earnings should weaken, which makes current valuations at 22x earnings more challenging to sustain. While bullish investors continue trying to “Fight the Fed,” such may prove to be a more formidable challenge than many expect.” – Lance Roberts. Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullish-investors-continue-to-fight-the-fed/
“...the party isn't going to last, according to a growing chorus of market voices. Last week, perpetually skeptical "Big Short" investor Michael Burry issued a grave warning to investors that summed up his market view in a single one-word tweet: "Sell." Top economists David Rosenberg and Jeremy Siegel have also warned that stocks' early-year gains will likely prove short-lived. Rosenberg warned Monday that the S&P 500 could plummet as much as 30% once the fear of a Fed-fueled recession sets in.”
https://africa.businessinsider.com/markets/michael-burry-blackrock-and-morgan-stanley-have-warned-the-stocks-rally-wont-last/n00f43k
My cmt: I can’t remember when there was such a big dichotomy of opinion. Jeremy Siegal (Wharton School of Business), Ed Yardini (Yardini Research) and Tom Lee (Fundstradt) (to name a few) are looking for solid gains ahead. I do too. I will say this - all bets are off of the FED blindly keeps on hiking rates. The expectation is 1 more rate hike and a pause. Will inflation continue to fall? That’s the obvious issue.
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 4137.
-VIX slipped about 1% to 20.36.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.738%.
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 279-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 4.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum, although momentum has been slipping recently.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (I considered selling XLY. But it has been a good performer recently, so I’ll continue to watch it.)
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
CPI is due out Wednesday, 14 February, 8:30 EDT, Valentine’s Day. Let’s hope it’s sweet news for investors.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
