“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
RETAIL SALES (CNBC)
“Sales at retailers rose far more than expected in January as consumers persevered despite rising inflation pressures.
Advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.9%...On a year-over-year basis, retail sales increased 6.4%, which was exactly in line with the consumer price index move reported Tuesday.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/retail-sales-january-2023-.html
My cmt: Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation. So year-over-year, there was no increase in sales in inflation adjusted dollars.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MIshTalk)
“Industrial production was unchanged in January after falling 0.6 percent and 1.0 percent in November and December, respectively. In January, manufacturing output moved up 1.0 percent and mining output rose 2.0 percent following two months with substantial decreases for each sector.” Commentary at...
https://mishtalk.com/economics/industrial-production-much-weaker-than-expected-with-negative-revisions-too
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (Advisor Perspectives)
“This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions climbed 27.1 points from last month but remained negative at -5.8. This morning's reading exceeded the Investing.com forecast of -18.0.” Charts and commentary at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/2023/02/15/empire-state-manufacturing-survey-activity-continues-to-decline-in-february
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 16.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 471.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4148.
-VIX fell about 4% to 18.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.820%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.5% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 281-days.
The S&P 500 is 5.2% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 4.4% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – (2xNas 100)
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. WE have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500, 200-dMA has been falling since late April. Today the 200-day was slightly higher than yesterday, i.e., the 200-dMA has turned up. If that trend can continue, it will be another bullish sign.
We got very strong retail sales today, but the markets
moved higher. So much for the pundits
who predicted that a strong number would cause declines.
I continue to hold my leveraged positions (SSO & QLD)
since both were up today. I may take profits if gains fall below 10%.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) improved from +2 to +3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +73 to +63. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
Bottom line: I’m a BULL.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Sales at retailers rose far more than expected in January as consumers persevered despite rising inflation pressures.
Advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.9%...On a year-over-year basis, retail sales increased 6.4%, which was exactly in line with the consumer price index move reported Tuesday.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/retail-sales-january-2023-.html
My cmt: Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation. So year-over-year, there was no increase in sales in inflation adjusted dollars.
“Industrial production was unchanged in January after falling 0.6 percent and 1.0 percent in November and December, respectively. In January, manufacturing output moved up 1.0 percent and mining output rose 2.0 percent following two months with substantial decreases for each sector.” Commentary at...
https://mishtalk.com/economics/industrial-production-much-weaker-than-expected-with-negative-revisions-too
“This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions climbed 27.1 points from last month but remained negative at -5.8. This morning's reading exceeded the Investing.com forecast of -18.0.” Charts and commentary at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/2023/02/15/empire-state-manufacturing-survey-activity-continues-to-decline-in-february
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 16.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 471.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4148.
-VIX fell about 4% to 18.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.820%.
-Drop from Top: 13.5% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 281-days.
The S&P 500 is 5.2% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 4.4% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – (2xNas 100)
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. WE have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
The S&P 500, 200-dMA has been falling since late April. Today the 200-day was slightly higher than yesterday, i.e., the 200-dMA has turned up. If that trend can continue, it will be another bullish sign.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
