“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The Biden Administration is determined to make the
failed state of California the model for the nation.” – Michael Ramirez.
Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (CNN)
“First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to 196,000, a slightly higher total than the 190,000 that economists were expecting — but still a historically low number. Despite widely publicized layoffs from tech giants, media companies and the financial sector in recent weeks, the US labor market remains robust after eight rate hikes in 11 months meant to cool the economy.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/economy/weekly-initial-jobless-claims/index.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 0.7% to 4089.
-VIX rose about 6% to 20.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.669%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.8% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 277-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 3.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum, although momentum has been slipping recently.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (I considered selling XLY. But it has been a good performer recently, so I’ll continue to watch it.)
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
One stat I look at regularly is the % of new 52-week highs {(new-highs) / (new-highs+new-lows)} averaged over the prior 10-days. If we look at that stat for each of the 5 big rallies we have seen during this bear market, we note the following: During the first 4 rallies the 10-dMA of %-new-highs peaked at 57%, 62%, 61% & 59%. We are now in the 5th rally, and the 10-dMA of new-highs, so far, has peaked at 93%. The point is to note that this rally is significantly different than the others; this is yet another sign that the bear market is probably over. Could it return? Could the bears be right? Sure, but the odds are not currently in their favor.
As for now, it looks like the S&P 500 wants to revisit
the lower trendline in the vicinity of the 50-dMA. I think we’ll see some buying around 4000 on
the S&P 500, i.e., I expect the 4000 level to hold.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from +9 to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations slipped
from +76 to 75. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive. VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
Bottom line: I’m a BULL.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to short-term SELL. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to 196,000, a slightly higher total than the 190,000 that economists were expecting — but still a historically low number. Despite widely publicized layoffs from tech giants, media companies and the financial sector in recent weeks, the US labor market remains robust after eight rate hikes in 11 months meant to cool the economy.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/economy/weekly-initial-jobless-claims/index.html
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 0.7% to 4089.
-VIX rose about 6% to 20.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.669%.
-Drop from Top: 14.8% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 277-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 3.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum, although momentum has been slipping recently.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (I considered selling XLY. But it has been a good performer recently, so I’ll continue to watch it.)
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
One stat I look at regularly is the % of new 52-week highs {(new-highs) / (new-highs+new-lows)} averaged over the prior 10-days. If we look at that stat for each of the 5 big rallies we have seen during this bear market, we note the following: During the first 4 rallies the 10-dMA of %-new-highs peaked at 57%, 62%, 61% & 59%. We are now in the 5th rally, and the 10-dMA of new-highs, so far, has peaked at 93%. The point is to note that this rally is significantly different than the others; this is yet another sign that the bear market is probably over. Could it return? Could the bears be right? Sure, but the odds are not currently in their favor.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
