“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% in January, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%... Excluding volatile food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% from a year ago, against respective estimates of 0.3% and 5.5%.
Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/consumer-price-index-january-2023-.html
My cmt: The good news was that year-over-year, inflation continues to fall.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about a point to 4136.
-VIX fell about 7% to 18.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 3.739%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.8% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 280-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 4.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum, although momentum has been slipping recently.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (I considered selling XLY. But it has been a good performer recently, so I’ll continue to watch it.)
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Hatteras Island had an internet outage all day long, so I’m posting late tonight.
Price action makes me suspicious that the markets still
want to retest the 50-dMA area (3972). That’s about 4% below today’s
close. A close below 4000 would probably
be good enough. The dip-buyers might
move in before the markets fall that far.
While CPI missed expectations, the CPI (year-over-year) is still
falling, albeit slower this month. Some are suggesting that a weak Retail Sales
number (due out tomorrow) would be good to indicate further slowing in the economy.
Briefing.com says the consensus is +1.7%.
We’ll see.
As of Tuesday night, I have a 10% gain in both of my
leveraged positions (SSO & QLD). I may take profits if that gain falls
below 10%, i.e., if tomorrow is a down day. I'd rather not see the gains
evaporate. That can happen quickly in a
leveraged holding.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears)
slipped from +8 to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish);
the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +75
to 73. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
Bottom line: I’m a BULL.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to SELL. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% in January, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%... Excluding volatile food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% from a year ago, against respective estimates of 0.3% and 5.5%.
Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/consumer-price-index-january-2023-.html
My cmt: The good news was that year-over-year, inflation continues to fall.
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about a point to 4136.
-VIX fell about 7% to 18.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 3.739%.
-Drop from Top: 13.8% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 280-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 4.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum, although momentum has been slipping recently.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (I considered selling XLY. But it has been a good performer recently, so I’ll continue to watch it.)
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
Hatteras Island had an internet outage all day long, so I’m posting late tonight.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
