“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 455.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
TECHNICALS VS FUNDAMENTALS (RIA)
“With much economic data pointing to further weakness in the months ahead, market fundamentals remain challenging to the technical bullish narrative. However, historically, the markets tend to price economic and fundamental recoveries 6-9 months in advance. Such would suggest that the more bullish optimistic views of a “soft landing” scenario in the economy could be possible...from the fundamental perspective...historically with inflation running well above 5% and the Federal Reserve continuing to hike rates, “goldilocks outcomes” did not previously come to fruition.
Yes, the fundamentals will eventually matter, and they will matter much more than many currently think. However, for the now, the bulls remain in charge of the market...How long with the technical bull run last? I have no idea. But when it ends, and the fundamentals begin to re-emerge, we will have plenty of warning to adjust accordingly.” Lance Roberts, Chief Portfolio Strategist/Economist for RIA Advisors. Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-technicals-vs-the-fundamentals-which-is-right/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.1% to 4118.
-VIX rose about 5% to 19.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.623%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 276-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.3% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 3.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum, although momentum has been slipping recently.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (I considered selling XLY. But it has been a good performer recently, so I’ll continue to watch it.)
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from +8 to +9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +71 to 76. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are positive. VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
Bottom line: I’m a BULL.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals was HOLD. (Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 455.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
“With much economic data pointing to further weakness in the months ahead, market fundamentals remain challenging to the technical bullish narrative. However, historically, the markets tend to price economic and fundamental recoveries 6-9 months in advance. Such would suggest that the more bullish optimistic views of a “soft landing” scenario in the economy could be possible...from the fundamental perspective...historically with inflation running well above 5% and the Federal Reserve continuing to hike rates, “goldilocks outcomes” did not previously come to fruition.
Yes, the fundamentals will eventually matter, and they will matter much more than many currently think. However, for the now, the bulls remain in charge of the market...How long with the technical bull run last? I have no idea. But when it ends, and the fundamentals begin to re-emerge, we will have plenty of warning to adjust accordingly.” Lance Roberts, Chief Portfolio Strategist/Economist for RIA Advisors. Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-technicals-vs-the-fundamentals-which-is-right/
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.1% to 4118.
-VIX rose about 5% to 19.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.623%.
-Drop from Top: 14.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 276-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.3% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 3.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum, although momentum has been slipping recently.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (I considered selling XLY. But it has been a good performer recently, so I’ll continue to watch it.)
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from +8 to +9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +71 to 76. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal.)
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
